I feel much better waking up this morning to hear Goldman and Citi are moving their rate hike forecasts, but both in opposite directions, both having taken away opposite meanings from the F_O_M_C yesterday, perhaps Yellen and co. are better than Greenspeak? Goldman pushed a rate hike back from September to December while CITI brought theirs forward from December to September. So I don't feel so bad now for feeling a bit confused with the entire matter based on yesterday's F_O_M_C.
Overnight China's Shanghai Comp. saw another sharp loss of -3.67% as it is said the locals are realizing their market is a bubble. Amazing that anyone wouldn't realize that, but even more amazing that day trading grandma's realize it and are getting out while the US market bubble has gone on for years.
Today is the Eurogroup meeting and Greece is not showing up with any new proposals so it doesn't seem like it will be a firestarter in any way, but there's talk of an emergency meeting being called for later, Thursday night after the normally scheduled meeting, again Greece is bringing nothing new to the table.
There's a possibilityy floating about that Troika creditors "may" put out a draft statement of writing down some of Greece's debt, pretty much through lower interest rates, but Greece would have to meet all the terms of the MoU, which means the pension reform and VAT tax reform that the Syriza ruling party/Greek Parliament has been so against holding up all negotiations. I really don't know what to think of this one as it could give Tsipras cover saying he extracted concessions, but wouldn't change a word of the current program which Syria promised to trash.
Well as I said, the Greek Fin-Min attending the meeting won't be bringing any new proposals so they seem resigned to a Greek default and rewiring to let the creditors panic about what chaos may befall Greece and the wider EU. There are so many issues here it's mind boggling just to contemplate how one leads to another, to another, to another like a M.C Esher painting so we'll just leave it at that and see what happens.
If you were looking for F_E_D rate hike data this morning, it was split with jobless claims down and inflation down, just like the F_O_M_C yesterday, split between what they said and what they did or wrote.
Jobless Claims came in near the low end of the historic range at 267 vs consensus of 275 and a prior of 279.
CPI (Inflation data) missed , just about all the readings in the May consumer price report point to very soft price pressures with the overall monthly gain, at plus 0.4 percent, and the ex-food ex-gasoline core gain, at only plus 0.1 percent below consensus go .5 and .2 respectively.
The market has a transitory feel to it this morning, the USD lost more ground overnight,
Today I'll be looking for the signals of a downside move through the 150-SPX moving average and the timing of that. As I said last night, it would be nice if the market held roughly in place or trended rather than chopped, this is where the best signals are found.
I'll fill you in as soon as we get some solid data on the short term charts which for the most part look horrible as you've seen the last 2-dqays.
The Greek debt write-off- if there's anything to it, could be a market moving relief event, but that seems to be pie in the sky for the moment so I'm not going to engage in speculation other than to let you know it's out there.
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