Market Update

The Greek news keeps getting worse and worse. I suspect the Troika was willing to consider lowering interest on Greek Debt, giving Tsipras a little face-saving maneuvering room by saying he extracted some concessions, but as mentioned earlier, it's the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), that Greece/Syriza pledged to destroy and all conditions of the MoU would have to be fulfilled for Greece to get this debt write down which is mostly via interest payments/rates, not actual principle write-down.

Whether brinksmanship or not, Greece has put the "onus" of the default on creditors, but they don't seem to be biting. The most succinct response to this from the Trokia is,

"“Things will not be so lengthy,” said one official in Brussels. “The ball, ministers will conclude, is very firmly in the Greek camp. I honestly believe this will be pretty short.”

"Pretty Short" is sounding a lot like the Lehman weekend everyone was talking about  earlier this week.

In any case, I wanted to get a few charts out there.

One of the most interesting this morning is the TICK chart, with a move like this morning's I'd expect to see at +1500, maybe even +1750 or even +2000

Instead of some strong extreme , it barely crossed +1000 and has been under that most of the rest of the morning. As a reminder the TICK is all NYSE stocks advancing minus declining per bar, a strong reading would be +1250 and that would be seen on a mediocre move of +.50%, a move like this morning with so few stocks advancing vs. declining is outright one of the stranger things I've seen this week.

I took a quick look at some leading indicators, although I usually don't like using them this early in the day, but they were interesting...

The SPX:RUT ratio failed to confirm-you may have seen this failing to confirm yesterday after the F_O_M_C as well.

The Pro Sentiment indicators, such as the larger version going south at the SPX's head fake move in May has kept going south, but interestingly this morning, really made no attempt at all to follow risk markets. Here's a closer look...

The SPX this morning to the far right and our Pro sentiment indicator not playing along at all.

 The secondary confirmation version of the pro sentiment indicator was showing the same thing.

High Yield Credit which in this case will often make small moves with the market while maintaining larger divergences, also had no interest in chasing risk higher, HY credit is what you might consider an institutional risk asset like one might consider a momentum stock for retail.

And that 3C non-confirmation from earlier that I mentioned, it's not even the larger divergence across the chart, but more specifically today with a leading negative divergence and a sharp one.

 VXX which I showed yesterday with several other assets putting in an intraday negative 1 min divergence just before the F_O_M_C is also leading, but positive this morning.

The day is still very early. I suspect if I were to add to the QQQ put position that is at speculative size  one of the things I might be looking for and consider would be a churning event. That means notably higher volume on a bearish candlestick in an of the averages, or better all of them, the candlestick would have to be intraday, anywhere from 1 min (less likely) to -15 or 30 mins, a long upper wick or something like that.

The market would essentially be stuck in place and churning on large volume, then I'd be considering an add-to on the half position size QQQ puts and/or additional positions.