Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Market and Futures Update

I am going to post a sample of the Index futures through multiple timeframes, the simple message in the charts is that we are at a pretty ugly spot in the market , one that is typical of a reversal process and where I usually like to try to enter positions on strength (short) or weakness (long), with the 3C charts showing divergences.

The IWM/Russell 2000 is of particular interest to me, but I'm not willing to chase it so an intraday bounce which is starting to look more probable at least in the IWM would be very helpful.

Index Futures...
 Es/SPX E-mini Futures 3 min with a clear negative divergence. These shorter term timeframes are most often used for timing indications once we have seen a divergence migrate out to strong enough timeframes to indicate a reversal is highly likely, this is why I require that the 5 min Futures charts are in line with any positions taken as it shows there;s a decent amount of strength in the divergence and timing in the position.

Speaking of 5 min charts, this is the Russell 2000 (TF) 5 min chart. I'd say the divergence is very clear here.

And the stronger charts like the 7 min are also leading negative. Here I'm using Dow 30 e-mini futures (/YM) as I've noticed in past declines from market tops, the large caps tend to hold out the longest and see the least damage, but in this case they look just about as bad as everything else.

 ES 15 min leading negative. It was just last week that the positive divergence for this week's bounce was VERY clear and strong on ES's 10 min chart, now we have seen the divergence migrate , erase any sign of a positive divergence and move to a stronger 15 min leading negative 3C divergence.

This is the 30 min NASDAQ 100 futures showing the last leading negative divergence to the far left pulling the market lower with price trend confirmation at the green arrow, the positive divergence for a bounce at the white arrow and a leading negative divergence again only in worse/lower position than last time as price is at the same relative area.

 And the 60 min TF chart showing what I believe to be a top, as in the top and a confirmation signal of the downtrend, no positive divergence made it out this far and a current leading negative divergence.

This is one of the reasons I have an interest in an IWM / R2K short, but would like to see some price strength to open that position in to.

The averages...
 This is the 15 min IWM chart leading negative below the area of where the bounce started and most of that leading divergence was the last 2 days so it's a rather strong and fast move.

 The 15 min QQQ for reference, it too doesn't look good, none of these do, but it may be of particular interest in choosing what positions I think will give the best relative performance.

As for a bounce intraday or near term for position entries...
 The SPY intraday 1 min chart isn't showing anything specific that I can work with.

The 1 min QQQ is showing that increased rate of deterioration mentioned above in reference to the deterioration in 15 min charts.

However the IWM 1 min intraday looks to be putting in a small positive divergence, after earlier weakness, I do have upside price alerts set to let me know when we are in the area of an upside move.

 The IWM 2 min shows the weakness intraday leading to its downside, but again a positive divergence, nothing huge, but it should be enough to get us back in to more favorable position, especially if we are looking at options positions.

 SPY 3 min isn't looking very good here which is in line with a reversal process. For options positions I'd prefer to see an upside head fake move with the same kind of negative divergence to give us a discount on the premium.

And the QQQ 10 min trend shows that really nothing changed in 3C despite the bounce, the trajectory continues lower and this is the bigger picture of underlying trade and counter trend bounces.

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