NEW LIST UP

HERE ARE SOME NOTES ON TRADES TO KEEP AN EYE ON:


Reiterate ACV (S), MFN (S) HOLD, Watch for BHS to trigger a short.

As the pattern in the NBL short has developed, I'd suggest a stop of $73.98

Time to take profits on DCTH.

TRGL is looking like a strong short as is CPX and KALU.

For those long BEE, it looks like it's about to make another move up.

If you need trades- long or short for any particular industry, email me.

NEW TRADES FOR WEDNESDAY ARE UP

There's quite a few longs and shorts and inverse longs as well. Take a look and be careful-the last few are all homebuilders and you don't want to be overly correlated- especially to the dollar (ex: commodities, metals, oil, financial, tech).

MVIS

This one at $2.74 (assuming it can hold that level on a close) looks like a decent quick long.

UUP Going UP

The ETF for the Dollar Index pulled back as I suspected it would, I didn't think it would only last 2 days. In any case, I believe it can be bought here and now with the caveat that it closes above $23.92; if so then you can hold it and place an initial stop below $23.83.

If the dollar is moving up, now would be the time to go back and take a look at my recent short ideas among energy and commodity related issues.

HESITANT

I posted a few limit trades today, they are a safety net more or less. I'm looking into something right now that is making me hesitant on this market in either direction, it may be nothing, but until I fully understand it, I'm hesitant and when I do, you'll be the first to know.

Otherwise, not much changed today, the Q's-even being up, actually violated a linear regression channel on an hourly chart to the downside. Before that the best we had was a 10-min chart violation.

We'll see soon enough.

I'm also running a new scan right now, it takes forever and a day to tun as it scans the entire market but if I see anything promising there, I'll add them to tonight's list so check back in the a.m.

Update to last night's list

NCS was mistakenly classified as a short, it is not a short. If you saw the stop and target you would have seen that, but it's my bad.

NCS is a long, the stop and the target have not changed.

A Bunch of Trending Trades

First, as I pointed out today on Trade-Guild, I believe the market is showing negative sentiment, selling off on good news and that we have begun to turn the corner as this rally wraps up, I think we'll see a move lower and a sustainable one at that. There are more then enough reasons to justify such a move.

Most commodities have an inverse relationship with the $USD, that mean many commodity based stocks should make for excellent short sale candidates. Even better, commodities tend to trend better then equities, we are still shorting equities, but tonight's list are commodity based equities. These are trades for the long haul.

If you have my Trend Channel for stops and my modified version for trending entries, these are the stocks you want to use it on. If you don't have my trend channel, which takes each individual stock's recent volatility or a form of an Average True Range and creates a channel around price using standard deviations, you should consider either StockFinder or TeleChart and I'll be able to give out the formula for all of my indicators including 3C.

Check out the links below and let them know Trade Guild sent you.

Second Verse Same as the First-The Ugliness continues

Today we got pretty decent news, the kind of news that has sent this market higher for quite a while now, but not today-nope! It's called a change in sentiment and the market is spooked by something, my guess is uncertainty as it relates to our auctions of debt, the healthcare bill, possible downgrades, the fact that the real unemployment number is close to 1 in 5 people are out of work or under-employed and it's on a rising trend-by the same measure, the Great Depression had a reading of 25%-we are at 20%.

Tonight's List- 

You'll find everything is at market and everything is short. If you are observant, you'll find that many ideas are in the same industry group-don't pick more then one unless you'll split them into half positions (avoid over-correlation). These are weak groups and stocks-I'll continue to add to them.

You can also get some short exposure on the market via FAZ or any of the UltraShort ETFs for the major averages. Again-watch the correlation-NOT GOOD RISK MANAGEMENT!

I'd suggest getting your toes wet in these and recent shorts I've posted (take a look at GOOG and AAPL as well), but let the market prove it's intentions before adding to the positions or making them full positions.

If anyone is enjoying any of the high-flyers that are trending up-email for the stop or use my Trend Channel if you have it.

CHANGE IN CHARACTER

Finally, we see a change in character follow through from last Friday, it may not have seemed like much, but the market internals give it away. Take a look at the short positions. The longs, especially the ones working like BEE, RNN, ACAD,CIGX, etc should be switched over to my trend channel, if you need the stops, email me.

Uncertainty has been reintroduced into the market in a big way and the dollar was proof positive of that, now for the market to catch up on the downside.

ENERGY

There are a lot of energy short trades-most limit orders on tonight's list. take a look and see what works for you. There are a few more 1-2-day high flyers. Basically this market is in overbought territory and that is why you are seeing a lot of limit orders-"show me" is my attitude. I still am quite certain that we will see a major downtrend, the February ascending wedge was broken Friday on high volume and what we are seeing now is typical of wedges-institutions and middle men are running limit orders and stops and setting long positions. We may see more volatility as I warned, but soon we should have a definitive break down.

CHAOS

The health care uncertainty rally was today, now we have states suing the Federal government and uncertainty introduced back into the picture. The move that started Friday I believe is the real deal and today was a relief rally.

Stick to your stops, but hang in there.

Tonight I listed a lot of high-flyers-very speculative trades, be sure to read whether or not they are limit trades.

We'll know more about where the market is at in the next 2 days. We are holding our shorts.

Gifts Are to Be Graciously Accepted

Today we received a gift from last night's long, RNN which is currently up 16.78% and as high as 25.8%. Trades like this, especially under $5.00 should be considered gifts. You want to either take your profits, or take partial profits, maybe your original investment or half, whatever suits you. They can disappear just as fast.

On the other hand, this may be the start of a new trend, this is why I say you might consider taking partial profits, but you never want to let a trade like this turn into a loss. It may consolidate for a month before another move up and that is opportunity cost. So make a choice that makes sense to you, but make a choice.

This is also an example of why we buy at the open and at market. A limit order would have missed this trade.

TRADES FOR MONDAY ARE UP

The market didn't just have a down day Friday it had something it hasn't had for weeks now, a truly DECISIVE day in which volume was huge and the chart patterns were altered significantly-could it be quadruple witching? The Health Care Debacle? Etc,etc,etc..... It doesn't matter.  Volume/Price relationships were Volume UP and Price down which indicates panics sellers. On Wednesday last week I posted an article about the market's coming reversal-there were so many signs and signals that I said, if we don't see a reversal, we'll need to re-think technical analysis. Here's the post:

The Forest Through the Trees

As for trades from last week, many are still viable so look at those as well, especially FCX and CAR, it's not too late for those shorts. I'd advise giving yourself some room on the stops, maybe more then what I suggested-turn-around tops can be volatile, but I think we are in for a trend down. If you have my Trend Channel Indicator-now's the time to use it for stops to lock in profits, if you are unsure of the correct settings for your position, email me.

Remember what I said last week because you can use it in the future, "The market's initial reaction to Fed statements is almost always the wrong reaction and it usually reverses within a few days" and that is exactly what we saw last week. It applies to major government announcements as well, but more so to Fed policy statements.

As usual, any questions, please email me. Remember, unless you are getting slaughtered, stops are on the close, not intraday and never post them with a limit order, keep them in your head.

If your portfolio is significant;y long, email me, there are a few positions you can jump into to hedge it out for a bit until you can clean it up.

Have a great week.

Latest Trades List

Remember to scroll down to the bottom of the list.

Going Into the Close

Forget the price, it's the % based move. GOOG and AAPL are both looking like good shorts here.

NEW TRADES ARE UP

THERE ARE A LOT OF SHORT TRADES, MANY ARE POSITION OR TREND TRADES. BE SURE TO CHECK FOR LIMIT ORDERS IN THE NOTES. ANY LONGS UNDER $5 THAT OFFER GIFTS, CONSIDER TAKING PARTIAL OR FULL PROFITS ON.

READ TRADE-GUILD FOR AN UPDATE ON THE MARKET, WE ARE AT UNPRECEDENTED LEVELS OF OVERBOUGHT IN MANY INDICATORS AND DISTRIBUTION IS HEAVY. THIS I BELIEVE IS THE FED EFFECT I'VE MENTIONED THIS WEEK.

Get The Most Out of Your Experience

Thank you for joining us here at Wolf on Wall Street. I want to share with you some ideas and concepts that have stood the test of time and proven to be a formula for success.

First about the Trade List at W.O.W.S., you can find it under "Trade Ideas/Stock Lists" on the right sidebar and usually the top link will say something like "latest trades" or "most recent list", click on that and in the article window a spread sheet will open, scroll down to the bottom, and those are the latest trade ideas color coded by date. If the Date is March 15th, these are trades for execution on the morning of March 16th. We execute all trades at market on the open, unless there is a limit order mentioned in the notes section for each trade to the right on the spreadsheet-it is important you read these notes.

The stops I put on the list are suggestions, but feel free to adjust them to your own needs. I try to offer you the most probable and timely trades that the market is offering. "That the market is offering" is important because there is no one particular tactic taken here, I adjust trading styles to meet market conditions. If we are near the end of a rally, then you'll see "the cats and dogs" trades which are cheap stocks under $5 that tend to see big 1-2 day moves. We see this occur just before a major bull move reverses. When the market is beginning to trend, you'll see trending trades, sometimes position or swing trades,long or short trades, stocks, ETFs or commodity based positions, it just depends on what is working in the market at that time. I try to make clear what that is in my posts and notes.

Now as to success and building wealth. I use a lot of custom indicators because I believe to make money in the market is to see what others have missed, however there is no indicator that will make you more money then a good risk management plan.

Here is what I suggest. You can take the aggressive approach and limit each trade to a target loss of 2% of portfolio if all goes wrong-this can not account for gaps and for this reason I suggest never putting more then 15% of portfolio equity into any one trade or any number of trades that are highly correlated.

The 2% Rule is simple, you have a $100,000 portfolio, 2% risk money =$2,000. That is the max. you will lose under this plan-not accounting for gaps. So if a trade is bought at $5.00 and the stop is $4, you have $1 of risk per share. Divide $2,000 (your 2%) by $1 (risk) and you can buy 2000 shares. 2000 x $5.00=$10,000 and is below our 15% maximum investment of portfolio-$15,000 and you are fine. This is an aggressive approach to risk management.

A less aggressive approach is to decide how many positions you are comfortable having open at any point in time. Lets assume it is 8, so you divide your $100,000 portfolio by 8 and get $15,000 (which works out perfect for our 15% rule). You then figure out 2% of $15,000 (risk per position) and you get $300 risk money.  Our same example trade, $5 entry and $4 stop with risk of $1 per share is used to divide the $300 and you get 300 shares or $1500 which is significantly less then our position limit of $15,000, unless you adjust your stop to say $.25 rather then a dollar, then you get 1200 x $5=$6,000 position size-still below. It would take a stop at $4.90 (which may or may not be a good stop level, depending on the trade) to take full advantage of the position size limit ($300 / $.10 risk=3000 shares x $5=$15,000). This method of deploying the 2% rule is less aggressive and better suited to those that like to diversify with more then a few positions.

On diversification, I DO NOT like to overly diversify. A $100,000 portfolio for me should have 8 positions. This allows you to get into enough long/shorts and different sectors. Higher limit portfolios I'd add a little more, but probably never much more then 12 "core positions" not including the crazy money trades that are very small. Over-diversification kills returns.

At the same time, I offer a lot of trades certain nights and people can't choose, they feel overwhelmed and wish I just put 1 or 2, but think of it like this-"look at the trades that your portfolio doesn't have industry exposure to only and chose from those". Having 6 positions and 3 of them closely correlated is not good risk management, you have half of your portfolio in basically one position.

Finally, pull the trigger. If you are practicing risk management and you are FOLLOWING THROUGH meaning stopping out (always on the close unless your position is melting down), then you have nothing to fear, get in there and trade, but do not falter on your risk management, if you have to stop out, then do it; you can always get back in.

Quickly on stops-chose them when you are objective and the time when you are most objective is before you enter the trade. Do not make them too tight for an initial position,  and never move them unless you are moving them in the direction of a successful trade.

If you have questions, email me any time. Thanks for joining us.

Brandt@Trade-Guild.net

Intraday Update

MFE can be bought here with  stop below $40.96
NCT is close to a trigger, I think the limit can be brought down to $3.03
BEE triggered and there's a new stop

THE FED U-TURN

As you may have heard me say, typically a few days after a FED announcement, the market does a U-turn. We want to lay a little low right now. There are a ton of bullish descending Wedges setting up in all of the Ultrashort ETF's-Bearish for the market, but we need confirmation first.

Tonight I threw out some Ultra ETFs and several are currency which tend to trend very well, so they are longer term trends-look at them with 5 day charts.

When we get a reversal, which I still strongly believe we'll get, we have a lot of potential targets that look very high probability.

Make sure you read the notes tonight and see if they are limit trades.

SCON

SCON has some fairly bullish attributes and is in a volatility squeeze. I'd say it makes a move tomorrow or the next day and probabilities are up. This can really move and is highly speculative but a decent long if you have some crazy cash.

FOMC Thursday

I have received a few emails about the location of the list of trades, on the right in a grey box it says "Trade Ideas/Stock Lists"; just click on the link "latest trades" and it will bring up a spread sheet, scroll to the bottom of the spread sheet and that is where you will find the newest trades. Next Spread sheet I will try to modify it so the newest trades are on top.

Today we had a bunch of swing trades that didn't get triggered, I picked Swing trades because of the market's volatility and probable top. The cats and dogs trades were waning. I'll throw some up tonight, but -as I posted at Trade-Guild.net tonight, the FOMC meeting is tomorrow, they likely will not move rates unless it is the overnight lending rate to further discourage the continuation of the dollar carry trade. Other then that, the market will be acutely attuned to every word and nuance, the tone of voice and facial expressions in trying to divine when interest rates are likely to rise. This is the reason we saw the volatility in the market that we saw today.

So keep your stops in place, exercise them when needed, keep the new positions at smaller sizes and don't forget that CASH is a position and one in which you will not sustain any losses, at least until the fog lifts. Remember this the first reaction to FOMC announcements is almost always the wrong reaction and reversed in a matter of days!


The new ideas will be up in about an hour.

Lesson Learned

Last night's list is performing horribly today, but for those of you who have been at this site for more then a few weeks may have noticed something different about the list, it was packed full of limit order trades only; this is because these trades were swing trade setups and we are still technically (may change at the close) in an uptrend, but as you know, I'm expecting a downside reversal. If you followed instructions and read the notes, hopefully you didn't get into any of these trades that bombed.

POINT IS-Read the notes! Use the Stops! I rarely use limit order trades, but if you see them, there's a good reason for it and today is proof positive of that reason. All of the trades except for one that were for market execution are either profitable or have offered profits as high as +6% on the day. So if you followed the notes, you shouldn't have been in any losing trades except potentially one.

On another note-Read the most current post at Trade-Guild on XLF, I'll add more later, but this will explain the situation, where we are at and how we'll move forward. Before I could even finish the post, the 1-min 3C chart was right on and we saw a break or resistance. If the 30 minute chart continue to develop, then we need to be very cautious indeed.

TRADES FOR MARCH 15, 2010 ARE UP

You'll notice quite a few longs on the list, be sure to check the notes; if they are red, then they are limit orders, if any trades DO NOT specifically say "Limit order" then they can be executed on the open at market.

The long trades are mostly swing trade setups, but keep a watch on the shorts on the last weeks for of lists, they are still good and the market seems to be turning, but the long swing trades are in good setup positions.

If you have questions, feel free to email. Again I mention, go to Trade-Guild and sign up for emails of the posts or you can do it here:

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TRADES FOR MARCH 12, 2010 ARE UP

S&P 1150 was what I feared, a magnet, gut I have been watching carefully and developed some new indicators as well that are sating the same thing we've been seeing all along, this is a retracement and more, but doesn't seem to be the start of anything beyond that and as such I'm hesitant to throw out long trades on the list, especially because there are so few that are set-ups. Right now a rising tide is simply lifting all boats, there's no great accumulation or set up and the cats and dogs rally is even getting thin.

If you are holding a long from the cats and dogs long list (longs below $5 posted in the last 2 weeks) and it hasn't stopped out, continue to hold it and take any gift the market gives-they are usually 1-day 8-16% moves.

Although without confirmation I can't go crazy offering up short sales, but there are a few bucking the rising tide and I've listed a few the last week and more tonight.

Take a look, I feel they are in good position now.

As always, email me with any questions. Brandt@Trade-Guild.net

Latest Trades Link
The newest trades are at the bottom of the lost-FOLLOW YOUR STOPS AND RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN!!

Second Verse Same as the First

Patience-I posted a few shorts yesterday, the longs that you may be holding are still ok to hold, but watch your stops.

We still need downside confirmation, but we are seeing a lot of negative things happen.

Follow Brandt on Twitter
I recommend following me as I post dozens of charts on Chart.ly during the day. If you don't have a twitter account it will take 2 mins. to setup. My name is BT24_7.

A few shorts

Here are a couple of shorts from this week's list that are looking pretty god now, I'll be back with more later.

FRZ
ELGX

Both short-here and now seems to be fine. Read the notes with the stops attached in this week's Spreadsheet.

Back to Patience

**For whatever reason, this did not get posted last night

Last week I posted several shorts, you'll want to take a look at those. Any of the long trades from this week can be held with the stops in place assuming you did not treat them as anything other then speculative positions, a few more should pop, but I feel we will see a reversal very soon. We want to wait for confirmation so as I occasionally post, right now is the time to use the one edge you have over Wall Street, patience.

If we get it tomorrow, I'll post an intraday update with the trades that are best positioned for the move.

Something is Amiss

Take a look at the latest post at www.Trade-Guild.net

Also something is wrong with the spreadsheet's P/L calculations, we're working on it now.

Trades for the 9th are up

As you can see, the cats and dogs are getting VERY speculative-hit and run, 1-2 day gainers. Keep the trade size appropriate to the risk, meaning small. The trades that didn't hit from yesterday and those I mentioned intraday today are all still in play.

If you have questions email me, but this is a sign that the end of the rally is just about here when they start to get this speculative.

Good luck-RISK MANAGEMENT!!!!!

From Last Night's List

If you haven't bought anything or shorted, here are a few that are looking interesting


*CAEI L
*CNTF S
*CYPB L
*TRMA L
*VITA L the pullback right now has created a lower risk trade if you haven't bought it
*ELGX S is in a great position in the bear flag right now
*RZ L looks interesting, like it may move
* CPSL L is up already over 12%-you may want to watch it to take some profits, depending on what the market does or how big your position is
* JADE L same as above-it's been up over 6% already this am

See the SpreadSheet for notes

TRADES FOR MARCH 8TH

THERE ARE A LOT OF "CATS AND DOGS LONGS HERE, BUT THE TEND TO MOVE QUICKLY FOR 1-3 DAY GAINS THAT ARE SIGNIFICANT. I HAVE PLENTY OF SHORTS, BUT UNTIL WE SEE OUR TURN AROUND WHICH I THINK WE'LL SEE SOON, WE'LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET AND THE CATS AND DOGGS ARE USUALLY A SIGN OF THE END OF THE UPTREND-TAKE THEM WHILE YOU CAN

Reading Time

If you haven't seen it yet, I posted an article on Trade-Guild "Is a Kiss More then a Kiss?"

I suggest reading it and several of the articles below to get a feel for the market. We are extremely overbought, but that means next to nothing as overbought can go on for a long time. There are however, several reliable indications that suggest we are close to the end of the uptrend. That is why this article is important to read, it lays out a couple of scenarios that you need to be prepared for.

I do not, have not and do not expect to see anything bullish that will change the primary downtrend we are still locked in so long trades are strangely counter trend if that makes any sense. I'll be posting more there, some sector opportunities and you'll see those stocks here, but you should understand the basics behind the sector and why the trades will be showing up here.

This is a difficult time as the market heads higher and all the indications are showing the equivalent of a Ginger Bread House. However, there are a few people that have been at this a lot  longer then I, like since the 1950's, writing indicators for Wall Street Firms and have seen a lot more then I and I feel confident that their assessment is largely the same as mine.

The market is dubious and deceptive and you must question everything you see and hear from Wall Street and CNBC-especially Cramer (who single handedly took out one of the most reliable technical formations over the last 100 years in a single night-AAPL).  I'd be watching for distribution in that stock over the next month.

If you find you are having trouble in the market now, always feel free to email me or go to Trade-Guild and read everything under "Resources and Concepts" and make sure you are on the same page. We can be wrong a lot of times and still make money, or without management we can be wrong a lot of times and lose everything.

Trades will be up Sunday

TRADES FOR MARCH 4TH ARE POSTED

I Highly recommend reading the last 3-4 posts at www.Trade-Guild.net , especially the last one tonight.

There may be a great opportunity tomorrow to finally break this stalemate in the market the last 3 days.

Take a look at tonight's trades, I like them all especially the longs, but remember, under $5 is speculative and you need to use appropriate measures in your risk management. 

Keep a special eye on GS, GOOG and AAPl for opportunities (a couple of possible false breakouts that could move down rapidly)-most have been on the lost the last few days so be sure to review the notes and email me with any questions.

Good luck!

NEW TRADES ARE UP

The short sale trades are fine as is, they can be taken at market open at market, the long trades  a little more speculative so keep the risk lower, maybe 1% or so.

Good luck-we should see a reversal in the next day or so.

FAZ

FAZ (3x leveraged short on financials ETF) is looking strong here with a tweezers bottom reversal, it also has fairly low risk in this area, just be careful of market correlation -for example if you already have a short on GS or JPM, FAZ would be a bit redundant and you wouldn't want 50% of your portfolio all in financials.

Reversal

Get your shorts organized, today we saw the gap up in the QQQQ that quite frequently is found the day after a shooting star, the only thing needed now is a close below $45.50 for an extremely reliable reversal pattern, the lower the better. Read Trade-Guild for more information on the broader market.

By the way, AAPL is in great position for a short right now.

Looks like a reversal

Shooting stars, afternoon sell-offs, everything today looked very much like a reversal so take a look at the recent lists. I especially like AAPL at $206-$208 Short. See if you can maybe put in a limit short on that one-It's very high probability coming off that right shoulder and low risk as well with plenty of downside.

The other ETFs I added are definitely interesting. You need to keep your positions un-correlated though so if you have questions regarding that, positions, entries, or stops, go ahead and email me and I'll get back to you ASAP.

NEW TRADES ARE UP-this could be a very precise entry

Patience and Risk Management Pay-off!

Check out the last two posts at Trade-Guild.net Today is looking a lot like a reversal day. You have time, you want to trade toward the end of the day, find your favorite short and get your toes wet. This is the best looking reversal signal we've had in this entire rally. Check the list  and if you need help-email me, I'll try to get to all of you before the close, just keep it short.

Good luck!

Patience is Back in Style

There's more then enough longs and shorts, but the longs must be considered countertrend and speculative, thus keep the risk reasonable-I'd say no more then half a normal position.

The market is strange today, financials were weak, thus the S&P was weak, but biotechs and the NASDAQ bros were strong. It's becoming a very volatile market which is typical of tops and thus your greatest asset right now and always over Wall Street is patience. YOU DO NOT HAVE TO BE IN THE MARKET! So take the trades that look the best, look like solid, fat pitches right down the middle and leave the other stuff for someone else. Reduce your risk until we get a trend table that makes some sense.

As I've said, there's a time to load up the truck and a time to be patient. If you have questions, please feel free to email me-you are paying for the service-USE IT!

New Trades for tomorrow are up.

Intraday Update

Here are some long and short trades from last night's list that look good into the close so far for execution-for specifics refer to the spread sheet trades from last night.


MNTG, SLV, JPM, GS, UGP, KLAC, DTV, JOYG, TXN, SOHU, STD,
LOGI, DSTI, ADBE, SLH, ATW