Thursday, July 22, 2010

McDonald's-Can They Hit the Hype?

I tuned into CNBC yesterday-I promise it was only for like 5 minutes. I caught the end of Maria B. (Still can't decide if she's attractive or not-I have no idea what she knows about the market) and then I caught a few minutes of Fast Money-it was all I could stand and I turned it off.

I did however catch some hype from one of the guys, maybe the one with an unusually small amount of hair on his head and and unusually long pony tail, I imagine him in a leading role of some Attila the Hun Saga. Any way there was some chit chat about how great the chart looks I think and then about them taking on Starbucks and the McCafe' and it seemed pretty hyped (on CNBC) so naturally I got a little suspicious and put it on the list of stocks that are reporting and decided that I don't think this looks that good.

This chart is hard to see so click on it and look at the blue indicator, it's just a indicator I put together showing cumulative volume-it should rise on rallies, fall on sell-off, a lot of the time it doesn't and this is a defining feature of a top.

This one day chart has been very accurate, it too doesn't look so good.

The 15 min 3C chart has been very accurate and again we see more negative divergences (red arrows)

Here's another version of 3C and a 10 min chart, the same story as above.

Finally, the 1 minute 3C, they are reporting in the am tomorrow and this doesn't look like anyone is out there accumulating the stock. Now this is an earnings assumption which is probably the most volatile of trades. MCD is very close to a double top-sort-of formation. MArket manipulation wise, they could knock out a bunch of orders and trigger a lot more if they run it up over yesterday's highs or above the April/May highs, but I would think that maybe they would have already done that, but anything is possible. Maybe this is not a quick pop like SBIB today was, maybe this is more of a short side position trade, but either way, I'm bringing it to your attention because it just doesn't look right.

No comments: