Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Morning Update


Above are two negative divergences on the fast version of 3C, this where divergences on short timeframes show up first.

There were some good earnings out and some bad today. The news says traders are mulling over the batch of reports, this looks more like a holding pattern waiting on Ben Bernanke's Congressional testimony today this afternoon. We already know that he's going to say that the Fed stands ready to keep the market momentum (or perceived momentum that was thought to exists) alive.

Why is the market not shooting ahead right now? Because they want to hear the tone of his voice, they want to listen for any nuance, subtle contradiction, they want to figure out of the Fed is able to anything. Interest rates are about as low as they can go, the only seeming tool the Fed has to really twist the banks' collective arms is to stop paying interest on reserves and force them to do something with the capital they are sitting on.

As I write this, the divergence has deepened. I will continue to watch for any signs, but it seems as if there's not going to be much known until he speaks.

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