Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Update

well we've skipped anything on the one min chart which wasn't strategically all that important and was the most ambiguous of all the charts. The 1 min was following prices or confirming, there was nothing suggesting a reversal in the 1-min, but it's not hard to turn and a weekend  can do a lot.

So we are now dealing with the 5 min positive divergence that I mentioned would hit it's first target at the neckline at $104.40 or so (SPY), for all practical purposes we have hit that and pretty fast. There could be some hold up in the area as I described last night, many traders will believe this to be the resistance level. If I'm right and we head higher into the gap, the market makers will allow some time in the are for those traders to take their short positions in the res before they move the market significantly higher and create  mini short squeeze.

Now is an important time to watch and it is a level I would feel comfortable adding a little to a new short position, not a lot, but a little. I know that's subjective, but everyone is different, for me, I'd have 25% in place as of Friday and maybe ad 10-15% here.

Right now prices are backing off that neckline level, watch for volume to increase slightly. I believe if/when prices move above the neckline, it won't be subtle, but fast and a significant move. If you are day trading, a position in UPRO now makes some sense, but don't get greedy, this is a precarious trade.

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