Thursday, August 26, 2010

Gunning For Stops?

This is today on a 1-minute chart, note the descending channel the SPY has been trading in since about 11:15 a.m. The lateral trendline is the close two days ago, which was resistance before yesterday, once broken it becomes support and a very obvious area for stops to congregate. If you look at the intersection of the channel and that support zone, that is where the market broke out of the channel, the increased volume is order flow, probably mostly stops.

 All 3 versions of a 1 minute 3C chart show a positive divergence at the break-really a positive divergence throughout the descending channel. My interpretation is this is accumulation into lower prices and especially when the stops were triggered, someone has to absorb the supply and we didn't get a negative divergence there so it would seem again, they took shares on the cheap. This is also the false breakdown concept I talk a lot about, sometimes I call it (the Judo concept) of using your opponents energy against them, in this case, if it is indeed a false breakdown as the charts seem to imply, then we would expect to see a move up very soon that is fueled by this false move down. We will know very shortly.

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