Friday, August 20, 2010

I was just wondering

If that inverse H&S was a bit too obvious on the charts, remember what I have said about technical analysis being used against technicians. The retail T.A. crowd went for the bait, the volume confirmed that, and a break at 2:20 back below $107.50 saw some volume so some stops were hit-another lesson, don't place stops with your broker if at all possible, it's like showing your cards in a poker game before you bet. In any case, there's been a few shakeouts already, and false moves lead to fast moves in the opposite direction-in this case meaning down. Although we also have to view resistance as a zone, not an exact number, it's all connected to emotions and emotions don't care about a few pennies. So now we are on the watch also for a breakdown.In that case, you want to probably consider having a reasonable short position in place, you have plenty of room and time to build it, but remember, it's only a few days in a downtrend that contribute to the major losses, most other days are up or lateral and you don't want to miss that one day that is a serious break to the downside.

Right now, overall, we still have that positive 5 min divergence in place, so with what we know, I think the assumption has to be there's accumulation in the area. If in fact smart money is not the owner of the calls, then they'd want them to expire worthless which at this point it seems as if they will with 30 minutes left, which brings us back to accumulation today. The obvious answer is they wait for the calls to expire worthless and then we get our bounce next week, early on. That's just a theory but pretty plausible considering what we are seeing thus far. So if you go short, you may want to leave some room in the position in case we get higher prices next week.

2 comments:

Quality Stocks said...

Bottom line is over the longer term 3c is showing lower prices even if a short term pop could occur....correct?

Brandt said...

Yes, no doubt about that. It's just a matter of tactics now and account management. It's good to add into higher prices (shorts) so that' what the update is about. a 5-min divergence isn't changing anything compared to the longer term negative divergences, it's lock rock, paper, scissors. The 5 minute is paper, everything else is scissors.