Friday, August 13, 2010

Oil

10-minute 3C chart of USO. The 5 and 1 minute charts are also positive. There's a negative divergence in UUP (proxy for the $USD) and the Dollar typically moves opposite of Oil because oil is priced in $USD. Any loss of value in the dollar demands higher prices in oil to compensate. So between the negative divergence suggesting lower prices in the dollar, it also suggests higher prices in the market and oil. This is not something that is meant to imply strength in the market or that I have abandoned my bearish bias, I'm leaving all my bearish plays in place, this is just signifying the probability, as I suggested in the video last night of a market bounce. Again to put this all in perspective, look at the 2008 charts right after the initial break of the major top or the same in the 1929 crash that I have posted recently, they both show that despite an extremely bearish environment, nothing goes straight down. This long oil trade or long market trade is just a short term bounce type of trade. IF/when it comes to pass it could be a day, it could be a week. This is why I posted the past bear market crash charts so you can see that this type of behavior is normal. At the same time, for short term traders, it does offer a prospective short term opportunity.

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