Monday, September 27, 2010

The 1 min Divergence

The DIA was the earliest and the worst. The little white arrow at the end is why I suspect some early strength, you can see it's not a huge signal.
Here is the QQQQ they were later on the divergence and had several rolled over until it went leading at the red arrows.
The SPY faced the same problem, the earlier relative divergences were a sign of things to come, but were rolled over. I believe t was the market makers gunning for orders at new highs which would explain the sell-off volume. You can see here I've added Worden's TSV, although I use a far longer version then I've seen anyone else use (55 periods), it also did a good job of calling the top. Below "0" it's in pure distribution mode.

Overall, considering these were only 1 min charts, I'm very happy with 3C's performance today. Although I will say that in watching it on the NASDAQ, today looked like there were a lot of bots trading and there was a strong emphasis on a trading range that is still intact. Go back and count today, how many false breakout/pattern failures in just these 3 averages. After 6 months of this at extreme levels, why traders continue to follow the textbooks instead of the charts is bewildering to me.

More in a bit... research time

6 comments:

Mr Pink said...

With another batch of POMO tomorrow (and Thursday), you can definitely bet there will be some strength at some stage tomorrow.

After this week, i don't think there is anymore POMO action? Can anyone confirm?

Brandt said...

Don't forget window dressing this week, the strongest performers will be bought, the worst performers will be sold.

Mr Pink said...

Brandt,

So, for this week, because of all this POMO monies injected into the market and end of Q3 tidying do we think the most probable play by the powers that be is that they will try and hold the market up this week even if all the various reports are bad?

Are all the various signs saying that this is the top and that we won't get a further nasty run up to 11,000 on the DOW and/or a run up to $160-$170 on the SPY?

Quality Stocks said...

Mr. Pink,
Hindsight is the only thing that will tell you 100% if a top is in or not. I would worry less about POMO and more about market signals or lack of signals. POMO is not important in the big picture and should not be included in investment decisions.

Mr Pink said...

Quality Stocks,

Brandt has said that he called the top in oil within a week of it happening. So he must know the signs of what a top looks like (that is followed by a big slide).

So, i'm wondering if he is seeing the same signs he saw in oil in the equity markets yet?

JC said...

I would agree with Pink in that the POMO has to be considered in your investment decision as it has held up this market longer, much longer than the market would have been without it. I think we got the turn early last week, but the fed intervention has kept the market rising. Will it eventually fall, I have no doubt. But I suggested earlier that I believe they are manipulating the market to keep the big hedge funds from getting redemption requests this week. Only reason you see a 10% gain in the month of September with horrific economic news. This market is not trading based on normal fundamentals or signals. I think it doesn't clear up until 10/1 at the earliest. This is my opinion based on what we are seeing and the manipulation of the dollar. We have seen selloff's that should have brought about capitulation, only to have some force come in and buy up and set a floor. Take it for what it is, a market that is completely out of control.