You see, after a little while of watching these guys they get predictable, but first you have to get over the learning and unlearning curve to understand the game.
I any case, 3C 1 min is headed back into leading negative divergences. If anyone is an avid blog reader, I'd like to know what the early sentiment was today-in other words, were the bulls out buying on the gap in blogland?
On another note. UUP -the dollar has quite a few leading positive divergences, as I said last night I think (I write a lot-here and emails) it appears the dollar's pullback is ending, this alone will drive oil prices lower.
USO is showing a multitude of negative divergences so whether the Inventories report on Wednesday is bullish or bearish, I think a downtrend is about to be re-established, today's head fake in USO as well is another sign of the probability of that outcome and while we are up here on this gap, it may be a decent place to add oil related ETFs-on your short list. Or to buy the inverse ETFS.
5 years ago
8 comments:
Hi Brandt,
When you get chance can you run 3C over the FTSE to see if a collapse there is imminent also, seems very overheated to me?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24FTSE
For some reason the FTSE has faired better than the US indices recently, it didn't dip so low on the last leg down, and is now at the same price it was at the start of May. It's even risen as the GBP has risen.
looks like we are starting to get our end of the day run up on the t-bill purchases by the FED. The money has to go somewhere and on a day like today, they were probably itching to get this money into the market.
Looks like the dollar is trying to gain on the euro, maybe the signal we are waiting for.
Jack,
What's the logic behind the FED pumping the money from the t-bill purchases into the market, if the market is about to fall off a cliff, why would they do that?
I'm not so sure that it is the FED. The Fed is going out into the open market and offering to buy T-Bills that have already been sold through prior auctions. They do this to keep rates down on longer term notes and provide more liquidity in the market place. They are hoping that this money from what they purchase goes into either stocks or additional future t-bill auctions would be my guess. This may be working directly into our hands, as it is providing the additonal capital to run this market up. I believe there has been reverse purchases by the FED for over a month now about every few days. Just enough timing to keep something going into the market.
Ironically the bond market is rallying today, which is not what one would expect on the verge of a bull run. The bond market is naturally much more risk adverse and tends to take profits quicker, the fact that they don't believe all the paositive news should tell us something.
Jack,
Looks like there is going to be even more propping up of the market in the coming days and weeks, no?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/primary-dealers-prepare-invest-27-billion-fed-money-levered-30x-over-next-month-buy-high-bet
I don't have any access to intraday data on the FTSE, but the daily is showing some relative negative divergences, but the intrday data is more important to see what may be changing quickly
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