As I suggested in the last post, we have the bear flag breakout on a modest rise on volume. The SPY already has a negative divergence, the DIA does not yet, it's still inline with price, the QQQQ has 1/3 in a negative 1 min divergence. On the 5 min they are all solidly negative in leading downside divergences.
I don't know what it will mean yet, but I just saw a nasty downside candle-1 min. It may be the start of the move back into the bear flag trapping longs.
5 years ago
3 comments:
Well, TRIN failed again. There was a low closing TRIN value on Friday and yet the market finished up near the days high. I think that's about 4 failures in recent history.
And today's closing TRIN reading is 0.60.
As many have said before, this market is just a series of FED 'free money' interventions. If they keep intervening this persistently why would they suddenly stop?
VIX finished at 21.19, do you still think it is going to double tomorrow Brandt to make as many VIX options expire as worthless as possible? I don't think it even went up that high and fast during the May flash crash.
The vix hit $40.71 on the flash crash intraday and had intraday highs the next day of $42.15.
Personally I do not think it will double, or hit $45, but who knows? That's why I said on the spread sheet last night if I took the trade I'd go lower $30-$35 maybe. The TRIN hasn't been working for awhile, that's why I haven't been using it. I think that it probably works pretty well in a market that's not being manipulated higher, this market seems to be being manipulated higher and that's why I've been trying to get an indicator made that basically gives the daily weighting of each component, because when you see an A/D line going down into higher prices or the P/V relationship as bad as they have been into rising prices, it's obvious the bid/ask and news events are being used to manipulate it higher. In that case there's no way possible for the TRIN to work.
There are periods when there's less or no manipulation, I've seen this often in stocks-individual. However, I believe where we are at right now, we are probably seeing the most intervention-wherever it comes from, since Q4 2008-Q1 2009, back then it was openly obvious.
As far as why the Fed would stop-or more appropriately, let the market fall is because of the business cycle which is a Fed controlled event, although others obviously profit from it. There's periods of wild expansion when money is everywhere, like we saw during the housing bubble and then there are declines and the media says the market "LOST" XYZ dollars today. It wasn't lost, it was transferred and I'd say most often that transfer is from the hands of the many to the hands of the few. So a never ending bull market doesn't make sense, there has to be that transfer of funds.
"zero hedge" highlights interesting discrepancy between govt deficit(monthly) and Treasury dept debt issuance...BIG differences(eg 212 bio issuance vs 90.5bio deficit). Such difference buys ALOT of market manipulation. hate to sound overly conspiratorial but i wonder how much of the stocks being bought are going to offshore incorporated shell companies...aka proxies of Uncle Sam.
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