Wednesday, September 15, 2010

A Little more certain

Consolidations are tough for any indicator, especially 3C when they are short as the way it is constructed it is comparing institutional investment at two relative points, when those points are bunched up in a consolidation and there's only a few candles between them, it makes it very difficult, not just for 3C , but most indicators.

However, there are enough negative divergences that I'm leaning toward calling this choppiness on a one minute chart a reversal. As always, be prepared for the false breakout up which is the gas in the tank of the engine that drives prices down. Still I'll have to keep a close eye on this until we are clear of the zone and trending down.

Morning trade is growing increasingly difficult, typically it's just filling of retail orders but more and more professional firms are specializing in particular hours of the day, some the morning, some only after 3 pm, some only after hours, so we are seeing a change occur as it's occurring and will have to unlearn and learn some new concepts as the trend toward "Laziness" in institutional trading develops. One of these firms, the guy talked about "I trade an hour a day and play tennis or golf the rest of the day".

I think back to all the companies I've worked for that built up a nice business and then took to golf or tennis and were there at the business increasingly fewer hours. It was always the same story, within a year or two, they lost their business.

The cafe my family bought, the former owner was there 4 hours a week! We were there 10-12 hours a day, 7 days a week and increased sales by 50% in the first two weeks alone.

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