Maybe an Early Warning...

The AAPL move seems to parabolic, it had a nice uptrend channel that it broke out of, this is usually a blow-off move. AAPL is still being used to bully the market around and perhaps XOM as well. There's a negative divergence finally on the 1 min in AAPL and it is back inside the channel.


The triangle that I showed you yesterday was very obvious and the break out, although large, is in context with the size of the triangle. The question now is, "is this a false move as we have seen 75% of the time?" and when do we get an answer to that question? The near parabolic spike in SPY/AAPL/DIA/QQQQ is usually not a good sign for the rally. Sometimes these turn into consolidation patterns, watching volume and price right now is key to look for signs of churning.

The SPY 1 min chart is in line with price, but the 5 min chart(more substantial) has failed to move above it's 2 pm position, meaning ti didn't confirm the rally since 2 pm and is in a negative divergence. 2/3's of the timeframes are now negative on the SPY, the more we see line up, the closer it is to a reversal.

The DIA is just starting a negative 1 min divergence.

The Q's are in a 1 min negative divergence-suggesting a reversal and about 3-4 other time frames are also negative.

AAPL is toying with the channel it broke out of, this is not really good news for bulls looking for continued gains as a break out of a solid trading channel often leads to a reversal. It's like the charts you see a straight runup and straight run back down forming what looks like a church steeple.

All 3 versions of 3C 1 min are suggesting a reversal here.

Volume at this point is crucial, we'd like to see high volume with no price advance, churning.

I can't say I'd like to see a close up here, although I can see it's benefits for a reversal especially with the Fed meeting tomorrow. In general, for the bulls H&S bottom theory, as it stands now, unless the volume picks up SUBSTANTIALLY, there's a high probability this is a false breakout.

It's hard to imagine a price move of this caliber with so little volume starting a new leg on top of the September rally.

It's taken me a long time to type this as I watch the market so somethings may have changed, I'll continue to update on anything I see, right now I'm trying to concentrate fully on the situation.