Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Always Try to be Open Minded

The market is as dynamic a place as you will find, more dynamic then  a, well never mind.

In any case, 3C has been saying distribution in GLD-IT MADE NO SENSE!

3C has been saying a reversal in the dollar- IT MADE NO SENSE!

3C has been saying distribution in the markets  VERY HARD TO BELIEVE WATCHING DAY TO DAY!

I'VE BEEN SAYING THAT THESE MAJOR CALLS FROM 3C NEVER MAKE SENSE, THEY JUST SEEM TO WORK OUT IN THE END.

Smart money rarely gets caught with their pants down in the market, that is why 3C shows distribution, they sell into strength, as we saw before the rally started, more then a week before we saw an upside reversal, smart money was buying into the decline. That's just how the market works.

Here's the Dollar Index...

recent 3C signals have called for a reversal in the dollar, today the Dollar Index broke the downtrend on a big move for that index.

GLD seemed like the impossible short bet, and I'd still wait for further confirmation unless you just get your toes wet, but here's GLD...

This is a big time daily chart, they don't get more important then this, right about the time GLD hiccuped, 3C was negatively divergent-distribution and as GLD has made higher and higher prices, 3C has refused to confirm the trend-meaning there seems to have been distribution in GLD each day as GLD marched higher. Again, that's a big drop in GLD. For those with good risk management, I think you can get your toes wet, but I might wait for a bounce and 3C confirmation before committing serious capital to any shorts on GLD. Price action is the final judge.

The DIA, SPY and the QQQQ reversals-again, toes can get wet, but defense is the name of the game and there's plenty of room below. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

 DIA 10 min chart. Remember last week or so I said there was negative divergences on the 1 and 5 minute charts and they will get more serious if they migrate to the 10 min chart. Here you can see, yesterday was used by smart money to GET OUT OG THE WAY-distribution and maybe some short selling. They aren't called smart money for nothing. Note the increase in volume as the trendline support is taken out.

 The QQQQ on a 15 minute chart, again, yesterday, "GET OUT!" was smart money's actions according to the negative divergence we see here. In the red box you can see a serious leading negative divergence forming. A break of the $50 level in the Q's will be a very important event, volume should be huge should that come as it looks like it will soon.

And as we saw yesterday in the SPY, higher prices into a negative divergence, this seems like a nasty bull trap. Prices were nearly vertical and 3C was going the opposite direction.

So we'll continue to monitor trends. I implore you to get up to speed on the risk management article posted on this sight at the top right corner with the other links. There's no need to rush into anything, let the market continue to confirm. WE WILL HAVE BOUNCES and those may provide excellent opportunities to enter positions.

On the Fed front, there were some serious speeches today from Fed members questioning the Fed's actions, I'll show you later. It was rather astounding, the degree of dissent and the language used.

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