I was looking for more earnings calls for today after hours, but there wasn't anything available. I'll be looking for Monday AH.
The final tally is somewhat disputable, there was 1 undisputed miss, there was 1 that is borderline and I think in the days ahead it will be confirmed as a correct call. So out of 9, 7 were correct or could have mad money off of.
ACTG Short was the bad miss, up 19+5 on good volume.
ALB is the disputable one. It put in some nice gains today to see them all erased and formed what is nearly a VERY impressive shooting star with a huge upper wick/tail. I think this one is the one that will decline as 3C suggested-it certainly saw it's gains sold off today.
AMZN was called a short and the 4% gain it put in yesterday was totally destroyed after hours being down I believe over 5% at one point so if that was shorted near the end of the day when I posted these, there was an easy 5% 1 hour gain. Today it was up about 2.5%, but even that looks like it'll be erased next week.
RVBD long came in today with a 18.31% gain, but intraday it was well over 20%-that's the kind of 1-day gift you take or at least take your initial investment off the table or a portion of it.
SNDK short looked like it wasn't going to be correct, today it was, albeit a small -.38%, it was a nasty candle that totally engulfed the previous day's very nasty candle-both on very high volume. This is one to keep an eye on in the days ahead.
PMCS Long had a nice day today up 6.7% on HUGE volume-look for further gains and confirmation here.
RMBS Long was up .73% today on a nice reversal upthrusting candle. This should see some more gains in the days ahead on a reversal.
AXP Short was down today about 3.15% on a bearish engulfing candle with big volume. This is an important stock to monitor as a market bellwether . From the looks of this chart, I think we'll see follow through early next week and possibly a trend.
LEG Short was down on a HUGE candle and HUGE volume. today's decline was 8.61%, but you could have booked over 11% last night in after hours trade. Either way, it's looking like another that'll show confirmation next week and continue down.
Check out today's trade SONC. Also don't forget about a bounce trade mentioned last night in GLD which put in a reversal pattern today (Harami) and oil (USO) which already put in gains today had you bought it on the open.
The FX pair, EUR/USD is continuing down. The small H&S top that is within the larger top (it makes up the top of the right shoulder) will reach it's neckline around $1.3920. The larger pattern's neckline is at 1.3775. After this area is penetrated, you can probably consider the dollar to have bottomed, whether for a swing trade or what is starting to appear as a longer, bigger rally. Possibly a multi-year high depending on how this develops. A few weeks ago I saw the distribution and couldn't imagine this happening, but here it is, we are 3/4s the way through the Euro H&S top. This doesn't mean that there isn't room for a bounce in GLD and USO, there certainly is, however in that case we are looking more at the trees then the forrest.
In news today Fitch placed a number of financial institutions on Negative Ratings Watch including BAC and C.
This weekend we have the G-20 meeting...
As you may have heard, WikiLeaks is about to release or has released it's biggest set of leaks EVER! Over 400,000 documents are coming from W.L. Warnings have gone out to the Iraqi government. Should be interesting.
Gold, as 3C has suggested, made it's first weekly decline in the last 6 weeks. This is due to strengthening in the dollar, also another 3C event recently.
Las Vegas is at 15% unemployment-now consider that is just the U3 number, you can nearly double it using the more robust U6 number. Yesterday the U6 number was estimated to be 22.5%, during the Great Depression the worst rate was 25% and it was counted almost the same as U6.
I'll be adding more stocks to the spread sheet tis weekend, quite a few nice trades (short term mostly) have set up.
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Risk Management
Get the Most Out of Your Experience
- * Understanding the Head-Fake Move Part 1
- * Understanding the Head-Fake Move Part 2
- * The Holy Grail of Investing and Trading-MUST READ-MUST UNDERSTAND IF YOU WANT TO EVER MAKE CONSISTENT MONEY IN THE MARKETS
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- * Placing Stops-What you should consider...
- * A Currency Crisis
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My Charting Software
3C Quick Start
Many of the charts you see here at WOWS are my proprietary indicator 3C which reveals underlying institutional money movements and often contradicts price. To understand the annotations made on charts, you must first understand that 3C has no numerical value, it is a pure divergence indicator. Positive divergences represent accumulation by smart money, negative divergences represent distribution by smart money and when 3C trades with price, that is trend confirmation.
The chart annotation system is simple; white arrows represent relative positive divergences, red arrows represent relative negative divergences and green arrows represent trend confirmation. When 3C is in a white or red box, that represents a leading positive or negative divergence, leading divergences are the most powerful.
We analyse 3C in multiple timeframes, the longer the timeframe the stronger the accumulation. 1-2 min timeframes represent intraday moves, a 5 min timeframe can represent a day or two and 15 min timeframes average trends of a swing trade nature. 30 and 60 min charts can move the market for a month or more and daily charts can be over a year.
You'll get use to seeing the charts and understanding how the multiple timeframe analysis works and works well.
Welcome to Wolf on Wall Street.
The trades featured here are meant to maximize returns with the least risk and highest probabilities. Unless otherwise mentioned, all trades are meant to be executed at market. I prefer long-term trending trades which perform well in rising markets, but really stand out in declining markets. However, we get occasional one day gifts 30,40,60% 1-day gains. I'd urge you to consider taking some or all off the table in such cases, the markets don't give gifts like that often or for very long. Most of the returns that make the system outperform so well come in short-entry trades. If you are opposed to short trades, this is not the system for you, unless you are ok with buying an inverse ETF. If you would like more information about the truth about shorting stocks, just email me.
Risk management. I recommend a specific and consistent risk management approach to all positions. In most cases we try for 2% risk money (2% of portfolio) unless such a position size exceeds 15-20% of overall portfolio in actual position size. Each trader is different and each has a different allowance of open trades. I like to keep the overall money in the trade around 10-15% of portfolio per position in case of gaps against you. Stops are generally executed at the end of day and I personally never place a stop order, all my stops are mental; remember, the middle man gets to see everyone's cards. When you are not in tune with the market or opportunities just aren't that spectacular, I take my risk per position down to 1% or even half a percent of portfolio value.
Each trader is different and must determine their own level of comfort with risk. I do have a channel stop which I provide to TeleChart/StockFinder users for automated stops, I appreciate you using my links to sign up if you do. The Trend Channel catches trends and works well as it automatically adjusts for each stock's volatility. Arbitrary exits based on nervousness about the markets WILL decrease the portfolio performance dramatically. This system will not ever get you in at market bottoms or tops. The recent 1 year performance against the Russell 2k buy and hold had the system beating it by 3:1. Ultimately it is up to you as to how you proceed, but I'm always available to help you determine what might work best for you.
Risk management. I recommend a specific and consistent risk management approach to all positions. In most cases we try for 2% risk money (2% of portfolio) unless such a position size exceeds 15-20% of overall portfolio in actual position size. Each trader is different and each has a different allowance of open trades. I like to keep the overall money in the trade around 10-15% of portfolio per position in case of gaps against you. Stops are generally executed at the end of day and I personally never place a stop order, all my stops are mental; remember, the middle man gets to see everyone's cards. When you are not in tune with the market or opportunities just aren't that spectacular, I take my risk per position down to 1% or even half a percent of portfolio value.
Each trader is different and must determine their own level of comfort with risk. I do have a channel stop which I provide to TeleChart/StockFinder users for automated stops, I appreciate you using my links to sign up if you do. The Trend Channel catches trends and works well as it automatically adjusts for each stock's volatility. Arbitrary exits based on nervousness about the markets WILL decrease the portfolio performance dramatically. This system will not ever get you in at market bottoms or tops. The recent 1 year performance against the Russell 2k buy and hold had the system beating it by 3:1. Ultimately it is up to you as to how you proceed, but I'm always available to help you determine what might work best for you.
I do use other scans and systems when market conditions warrant their use and may change strategy with market conditions.
The MOST IMPORTANT tool you have to bring you long term success is RISK MANAGEMENT. There are plenty of articles linked at Trade-Guild.net on Risk Management. We can be wrong 75% of the time and still outperform the market with solid, consistent risk management.
Position Sizing
The position sizes noted in the positions @ 2% risk of portfolio are based on a $20,000 portfolio-adjust as needed. Due to tight stops, there is the possibility, even probability that one position could take up the entire portfolio. You need to decide how many positions you want to trade and reduce the position size according to that. For instance, if you want to trade 5 positions in a $20,000 portfolio, no one position should be valued at more than $4,000-not risk money or 2% rule, but share price entry x shares.
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Futures Update BR-EXIT Edition - So the conventional wisdom couldn't have been more wrong. Those chasing risk and closing hedges couldn't be in a worse place right now. I would still remin...8 years ago
1 comment:
GLD is currently trading inverse to the Dollar. But with the massive distribution 3C has been showing for months, it should start declining on its own regardless of what other markets are doing. If the smart money is out of gold now, retail will not be able to hold it up.
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