GLD is now engulfing 2 daily candles on huge volume.
Thursday, October 7, 2010
The Judo Concept
This is what we are seeing right now. I mentioned SPY $115.50 would be the next support, as each of these levels are broken the snowball gathers momentum. The False breakout two days ago also figures into the picture.
DIA 1 min -as I said earlier, market makers weren't buying the gap up. Most of the 1 min charts are confirming the trend, but when they pass the red horizontal arrow and move a bit lower, they'll be in leading divergences.
For the real trend, here's the DIA 30 min. chart.This really is already in a leading divergence considering where prices are, you can see the breakout on Tuesday was a false breakout and as 3C 1 min suggested, was being sold into-distribution.
The QQQQ 1 min, again, this one is in a leading divergence, but breaking to a new low under the red arrow will worsen the negative divergence.
The 30 min chart shows the Q's in distribution for awhile very clearly, also the false breakout on Tuesday. This is a powerful leading negative divergence.
The SPY 1 min-green arrow means confirmation, but it is also in a negative leading divergence.
The 30 min (out of scale to show the false breakout).
As I said, $115.50 would be next support, you can se the volume pickup on a break of that level.
GLD is now engulfing 2 daily candles on huge volume.
GLD is now engulfing 2 daily candles on huge volume.
4 comments:
Brandt....It looks like on August 31 we had the start of the rally that lasted all through Sept and start of Oct. Going back on the hour and 15 3C we had accumlation for roughly 2 weeks and then the move for 5-6 weeks. How long has the distribution on the hour and 15 min 3C been so far at the top? How many days?
Really the distribution started almost immediately, 9/2-9/3, it got worse 9/21 on the hourly. On the 15 minute chart, the same-9/21 is when it really got bad, that's around the time I was seeing the signals all lining up.
So let's call it 3 weeks of distribution give or take. Now down moves happen faster so I am not sure what that can tell us about time and length of the down move we are anticipating. I think what might be key for us is to look for accumulation out of the ordinary on the 15 and hourly 3C when this down move is in full swing then wait for 2-3 weeks to cover shorts.....This is what I am trying to figure out. Other thoughts are welcome.
I always want confirmation in prices, 3C is not my reversal indicator-price is. That being said, if this continues, expect some fight at $104, 3C should pick up on any buying before then, if it starts at $107 (positive divergence), we know they are likely to take it to $107, if it starts at $105, then at least $105, but there should be a battle there, unless sentiment is so radically shifted that it slices right through. We'll see.
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