Objective Data

We seem to be making some progress here in the turn downward thus far. We are at or near some pretty serious, last levels of support so there may be a little back and forth, but here's the charts to show you where we started and where we are now.

 The DIA-this time frame called all the serious reversals, it is in the worst divergence seen yet on this chart, a STRONG leading divergence.

 Here the DIA shows 2 consecutive bear flags, the first saw a false breakout as we'd normally expect, the second one has shown up right below very important, last ditch support. Even with a false breakout, it seems like the DIA is locked into a reversal down.

This chart (sorry about the clarity) shows the 5 day moving average turning down, putting the DIA into a short term down trend, changing the classification in Dow Theory from lateral. This is the first time in September that the 5 sma has turned down.  The white arrows represent a bull trap, any longs caught in that zone are now at a loss.

 The QQQQ in a timeframe that has caught all the major swing reversals including this rally , it's now in a negative divergence calling for another change in trend, down.

 The QQQQ showing again, two consecutive bear flags, no false breakout on the first one though. This is a decent top and the flag is right at last ditch support before moving into a sub-intermediate downtrend.

Again the 5 day m.a. is signaling a change in the short term trend from lateral to down. The red arrows show nearly two weeks of longs caught in the losses of a bull trap. Looking at the volume alone, you can see something is definitely wrong with this chart, the bull trend seems to be over.

 The SPY on a 30 min chart that has caught all the swings up and down including this rally, now in a leading negative divergence-as bad as it gets for the bulls.

 Here's q 5 min chart of the Q's showing the newly formed bear flag, 3C again is in a leading divergence suggesting that this flag will collapse like the one before it breaking any remaining support.

The SPY, has already broke an important support level, we are now at last ditch support with  another bear flag. you can also see to the left where any longs buying in the zone marked by the two arrows are now at a loss, this is what gives momentum to the Judo Concept.

 a 30 min breadth chart of the QQQQ showing the advance decline ration turning decidedly bearish and the A/D min 10% change line now turning negative.

Two more measures of breadth for the QQQQ in obvious turnarounds to the bear side.

 The 30 minute breadth of the QQQQ in terms of % of stocks above or below their 30 min moving averages. As 3C suggested throughout this rally, this chart confirms there was continued weakness throughout the rally almost from the start.

 Another measure of breadth for the Q's-% of stocks making new 50 bar highs on a 30 minute chart. Again, more confirmation of 3C's negative divergence throughout the rally.

Finally my MACD Heat Map. This takes extensive explanation, so I'll just say the red arrows are sell/sell-short, the green arrows are buy. You can see we've entered a sell/sell short signal and you can also see that this chart has not had a single failure on it.

With the weight of the evidence, I'm not worried about a false breakout through the bear flag should it occur. You have to expect the bulls to put up some fight at last ditch support before capitulation. This is in essence, everything we were looking for when the accumulation was first spotted in late August. Needless to say, as I have maintained, I still maintain a bearish stance.