There is something off with this market today, it's behavior has deviated substantially from a normal POMO day, I haven't quite figured it out, but I'll keep looking and I don't see it as anything other then god news for shorts.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Update
The DIA looks like the last little positive divergence is now negative and heading toward a leading negative divergence.
This is what I meant on Monday night's post, "I don't see the natural progression of bullish to bearish being taken out" when I was talking about the bounce and why I wasn't to worried about it. There's a trend intact, one day does not make a trend.
There is something off with this market today, it's behavior has deviated substantially from a normal POMO day, I haven't quite figured it out, but I'll keep looking and I don't see it as anything other then god news for shorts.
There is something off with this market today, it's behavior has deviated substantially from a normal POMO day, I haven't quite figured it out, but I'll keep looking and I don't see it as anything other then god news for shorts.
21 comments:
Brandt,
The moment you posted that chart the DOW did a vertical 20 point up move.
Also, based on the charts you posted last night (strong 3C 1m accumulation in bear EFTs), shouldn't we be having a down day today?
Also, i see the EURO is 0.65% up against the dollar? Based on the 1min 3C charts last night, weren't we suppose to see the dollar getting stronger today?
I agree, it almost seems as if something or someone is hold back trades to slow things down. Not aggressive in the buying, but enough to keep it from a freefall. Anybody know the size of the repurchase today? How much money do they have to work with.
more of pomo money being used to support bonds and squeeze those shorts?
Jack,
Or it could be that there is very little correlation between what 3C is actually monitoring and actually market moves. Which, seeing as we are 'betting' on the direction of the market and not on 3C moves, means 3C doesn't help us much determining the market moves.
If 3C can't correctly 'predict' market moves, say, at least 60% of the time, then you're better off flipping a coin.
I'm looking for confirmation that those 1minute 3C charts (down market day and strengthening dollar) are vindicated, less than 2 hours of trading left and we have flat market and weak dollar. And as we have been told 1minute 3C charts should lead to the appropriate market moves the same day or within 24 hours at least.
also maybe ready to suck in some more shorts so they have the fodder for the next ramp up?
Obviously there were folks shorting into the hole on monday!
Mr Pink, you need to read my posts a little better, last night I ended with,
"In any case, I suspect we'll see over the next few days what the real story is."
The market was juiced with AAPL and the DIA is now below the level in which I posted it. I think you are getting too lost in the trees and need to step back and look at the forest. Today, another POMO day, are we up 2%? No, up .01%. There's a pretty obvious change in character don't you think? If you were a bull and bought yesterday's breakout move, how would you feel right now about the fact thus far, there's been ZERO follow through, even with POMO?
I also posted explicitly how 3C works last night as well as having explained it to you a dozen times or ore, but you still think a divergence means an immediate reversal.
Furthermore, lets just say you had no bias, no position. After seeing yesterday's move, would you have shorted or gone long? 3C gave you vital information about the character of yesterday's move.
Hi Brandt,
No i don't think a divergence means an immediate reversal.
But, you have said 1min 3C charts should lead to corresponding market moves the same trading day or within 24hours.
You showed there had been accumulation in bear ETFs yesterday and accumulation in the $dollar. Both on 1 minute charts. So, anyone going with what 3C said and bought those bear ETFs and/or went long on the US dollar would be in a losing position.
Also, what happened to 'the powers that be' defending the SPY $150, i think you said it was significant that they stopped it going above $150 at least 14 times, well, it's well above that now.
These just look like bad calls to me, no?
I'm looking to see how many of these moves 3C calls correctly, to judge roughly, what percentage of calls it makes correctly... because if it's less than 60% there isn't much of an incentive to use it? Isn't that common sense?
Anyone agree, or am i a lone voice here?
Anyway, let's see how this closes.
Let's agree that we are not in a normal trading market and that the FED intervention is a wild card that has thrown almost all bears from a wide range of programs for a loop. I follow several different methods of trading and indicators. All have been pretty much wrong for the last 2-3 weeks, not because their programs didn't do what they were designed to do, but because the FED is juicing the market and foreign governments are make surpise overnight purchase in the currency market. The fact remains that this market is in trouble and now has multiple gaps on the way up with little or no volume to justify this move. In any market, those gaps will need to get filled at some point. It is that simple. Timing is another story. 3C only gives us an idea what some of the players are positioning for. Granted, they are key players that have controlled the market for a very long time. So, I would bet that eventually they will be correct.
Mr. Pink here is the signals today 1 min for the dow, red distribution, white accumulation.
http://www.screencast.com/t/TMP9b0vRG1
However if long term accumulation is underway, you will see it on 1 min charts nearly every day, even while prices decline, the short divergences like this should still show up and work, but the big leading divergence just shows it's under accumulation, if it's big enough, it'll proceed to the 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60 minute charts.
Brandt,
So, based on the chart in the link, which currently show distribution (and yet the market has gone higher), you would expect to see a move down soon (below DIA 109.40), correct?
Jack,
"Let's agree that we are not in a normal trading market and that the FED intervention is a wild card that has thrown almost all bears from a wide range of programs for a loop."
- Yes, but 3C is suppose to follow 'the smart money' and the 'the smart money' is suppose to have the inside info on what's going (i.e. what the FED is doing, what the government is doing and where the FED wishes to take the market). No point in following 3C ala 'the smart money' if it is making the wrong moves and we should instead be following the FED. Right?
Yes Mr Pink, down, a reversal from the move up. It doesn't say how far down, but down as the DIA is currently headed.
Like I have said before, it would seem that the FED and the SMART money are at odds of what is going to happen. I don't think that SMART money is drinking the KoolAid. It would seem that they are betting against the FEDS moves at least in the short term. (Who knows, this could be part of the overall plan by both.) By short term I am not talking days, but weeks. It would seem that we may be nearing this time frame.
Jack,
I'm not buying it. The FED, government, insiders, 'smart money', they are all one and the same beast.
As i said in a post yesterday. It seems when the 'most probable' things don't happen (and they constantly haven't for quite a while here), then we change our opinion/story to justify it.
Seems to me that we are more like sheep getting sheered daily following 3C ala 'the smart money' than wolves at present.
What happened to 'Q3 ends' things should start reversing?
What happened to all those 'longs that were underwater when the market when down the other day 70 points? (Well, they are well in profit now).
What happened to 'the market won't go much higher' because the smart money won't want their short positions getting to far away from them?
What happened to the big resistance upwards at SPY $150?
What happened to all the 'is this the end for gold?' posts (that was a good $80+ ago).
Too many wrong calls in my book. And the $dollar finished weak again today against the EUR, so i would put down 3C's 1 minute charts showing accumulation in the $dollar (and therefore short term $dollar strength) down as another bad call.
Make o mistake, Wall Street is not in the dark as to the Fed's plan, I have showed evidence of that time and time again. It would not be in the Fed's interest to put the wringer on Wall Street, they can't afford another Wall Street bail out. One of these days I'll post the 1.5 years of accumulation in housing stocks while everyone was thinking "dot.com" How did these guys know so far in advance that housing was going to be the next bubble, everyone else was talking tech, biotech, but housing? No ONE! Yet they spent a year and a half accumulating these stocks and distributed into the rally. Remember, almost everyone who sits in the Fed comes from Wall Street. It's like Dick Cheney taking office and thinking Halibuton or oil was going to stay at $22 a barrel
Pink, at some point you have to make a decision for yourself in your trust of 3C. I have been here long enough to see it work when intervention isn't causing the market to go higher on fumes. There is a reason that Big Ben doesn't want Congress to do a full audit of the FED. Today, it would seem the FED was juicing the EURO more and didn't get the results in the stock market it was looking for. They usually trade in step with one another, but today may be the start of something different coming down the pipe.
Jack,
- As i said, 3C should see what 'the smart money' is doing (and the smart money knows what the FED is doing/gonna do). But, it's not making good calls.
"but today may be the start of something different coming down the pipe."
- Like i said, when things don't work out as 3C says, we try to make sense of it by coming up with some other hypothetical story to try and justify 3C being wrong. Call it for what it is, 3C got it wrong (and it seems to be getting quite a lot wrong).
Also, the DOW is current 20+ points in the green. And yet the last chart Brandt posted showed 3C distributing into the DIA (DOW proxy):
http://www.screencast.com/users/BT247/folders/Default/media/e9959579-f769-4109-b2a9-b45988a16cf0
Combine that with the fact the 3C 1minutes charts said there was accumulation in bear ETF's yesterday... and yet it looks like the market it going to finish up on yesterdays close...
... well, it is what it is, bad calls... and a hell of a lot of them recently. So, yes, trust is shot to pieces... and i'm looking for restoration in trust, but days, weeks go by and it's just not happening.
today was much worse than it appeared. leadership stocks were crushed. that is an awful awful sign. akam crm bidu vmw all were the leaders and got absolutely crushed today.
as for mr. pink. please do your own work and develop your own system. take responsibility for your losing trades. 3c is another piece of the puzzle for me. what it is for others, im not sure.
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