Monday, October 18, 2010

Wondering About the Market Makers

This chart-1 min of the QQQQ is typical market maker territory.
You can see there was a negative divergence right off the open and prices declined from there. in mid afternoon we had some confirmation, but 3C was nowhere near as high as it should have been so it was in a relative negative divergence even though it made the higher highs, higher lows with price around the green arrow. The last negative divergence I posted ended up taking a solid uptrend and forming a small double top, so momentum stopped there. I assume from the way the chart looks, the market makers liquidated higher priced inventory and may not fill the gap, assuming that gap hold until the morning which I imagine it will as tons of people just saw their stop limit orders become TOTALLY USELESS. This is why in the article I wrote and linked on risk management, I never want to put more then 10-15% in any one or multiple closely correlated positions, there's simply no way to protect from the gap, other then that.

In any case, if the big boys were moving out of IBM and AAPL as 3C suggested, the market makers would have been filling the orders and sen the trend. Thus they probably are not holding inventory at higher levels. This leaves open the possibility that we may get a breakaway gap down-that's the kind that you see in a reversal and is not filled. We'll have to wait for CONFIRMATION in the a.m., but as I said over the weekend, sentiment seems to have shifted with AAPL and IBM both being punished on other wise good and great numbers, even though AAPL has been downplaying guidance for years.

We will see, maybe this is what Yellens meant when she said the Fed might have to "take away the punch bowl".

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