Common Sense

After the North Korean's shelled a south Korean military installation/island last week, one of the things I mentioned in my Trade-Guild article was how impotent the South looked, a bully and the bullied. Although the South did return fire, it certainly wasn't enough for the nationalism that's taking hold in south Korea as the ordinary citizen also knows too well, that they have been pushed around way too much with no consequences.

That brings us to the South Korean Defense Minister being dismissed, rather resigning, but in politics there's no difference. Clearly the South Korean political establishment is under intense pressure to stand up to the North. Don't be surprised to see the South cross a North Korean line in the sand to reestablish their machismo. The Israelis looked pretty impotent on their last incursion into Lebanon which fostered a new thought process among their enemies, "They are not invincible, in fact, they hardly look competent", which of course led to a change of leadership. The South doesn't want that same role to play-out. It's unlikely pre-planned war games are going to do anything to reverse the situation. I'd be on the look out for provocations much sooner then later as both sides have their political machine's in danger. Remember, Kim's son is not established as competent within the ranks of the North Korean military and if he's to assume power, that base will need to be solidified and soon, otherwise they may have a Pakistani-like coupe.

At the same time, while pretty far removed from military tensions, Europe is quickly sliding into a hole that the E.U. may not survive. Watch for nationalistic momentum to gain power in Europe as everyone has a gripe with everyone else in the union. From there things could escalate very rapidly and with a few pokes and prods from Russia, the alliance that has boxed the Russians in to the east and dug deep into their former territories will eventually be a weakness the Russians look to exploit.

Big changes are coming and big changes are rarely peaceful and benevolent events among nations.