This is hardly a scientific comparison, but it's obvious there is a directional relationship, but not to the depth that we'd expect, everyone has noticed this.
So either the correlation is falling apart (it's hard to say with out actually knowing the traditional ratio), but eyeballing it, something is certainly off. Either the relationship has degraded or as I think may be the case, the forced market manipulation that occurred around the red arrow on the top chart due to POMO moving the markets higher, may have skewed the relationship. The scary part is that POMO is not having the same effect anymore and if there's some sort of arbitrage play or a return to the normal, it could force a nasty drop. That's just me thinking out loud, but it makes some sense.
By the way, the Euro that was in a 6 hour plus bounce vs the dollar has made a lower high and lower low for the first time in this bounce, suggesting the trend is changing which would normally have an inverse relationship and drag the market down. I think it's possible we see strength today in price as institutions unload positions for the long weekend in a world of unusually high uncertainty.
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