Monday, November 8, 2010
LPX
LPX looks decent as a long, it seems to be breaking out today. Perhaps a pullback would offer a lower risk opportunity to get in.
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Risk Management
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3C Quick Start
Many of the charts you see here at WOWS are my proprietary indicator 3C which reveals underlying institutional money movements and often contradicts price. To understand the annotations made on charts, you must first understand that 3C has no numerical value, it is a pure divergence indicator. Positive divergences represent accumulation by smart money, negative divergences represent distribution by smart money and when 3C trades with price, that is trend confirmation.
The chart annotation system is simple; white arrows represent relative positive divergences, red arrows represent relative negative divergences and green arrows represent trend confirmation. When 3C is in a white or red box, that represents a leading positive or negative divergence, leading divergences are the most powerful.
We analyse 3C in multiple timeframes, the longer the timeframe the stronger the accumulation. 1-2 min timeframes represent intraday moves, a 5 min timeframe can represent a day or two and 15 min timeframes average trends of a swing trade nature. 30 and 60 min charts can move the market for a month or more and daily charts can be over a year.
You'll get use to seeing the charts and understanding how the multiple timeframe analysis works and works well.
Welcome to Wolf on Wall Street.
The trades featured here are meant to maximize returns with the least risk and highest probabilities. Unless otherwise mentioned, all trades are meant to be executed at market. I prefer long-term trending trades which perform well in rising markets, but really stand out in declining markets. However, we get occasional one day gifts 30,40,60% 1-day gains. I'd urge you to consider taking some or all off the table in such cases, the markets don't give gifts like that often or for very long. Most of the returns that make the system outperform so well come in short-entry trades. If you are opposed to short trades, this is not the system for you, unless you are ok with buying an inverse ETF. If you would like more information about the truth about shorting stocks, just email me.
Risk management. I recommend a specific and consistent risk management approach to all positions. In most cases we try for 2% risk money (2% of portfolio) unless such a position size exceeds 15-20% of overall portfolio in actual position size. Each trader is different and each has a different allowance of open trades. I like to keep the overall money in the trade around 10-15% of portfolio per position in case of gaps against you. Stops are generally executed at the end of day and I personally never place a stop order, all my stops are mental; remember, the middle man gets to see everyone's cards. When you are not in tune with the market or opportunities just aren't that spectacular, I take my risk per position down to 1% or even half a percent of portfolio value.
Each trader is different and must determine their own level of comfort with risk. I do have a channel stop which I provide to TeleChart/StockFinder users for automated stops, I appreciate you using my links to sign up if you do. The Trend Channel catches trends and works well as it automatically adjusts for each stock's volatility. Arbitrary exits based on nervousness about the markets WILL decrease the portfolio performance dramatically. This system will not ever get you in at market bottoms or tops. The recent 1 year performance against the Russell 2k buy and hold had the system beating it by 3:1. Ultimately it is up to you as to how you proceed, but I'm always available to help you determine what might work best for you.
Risk management. I recommend a specific and consistent risk management approach to all positions. In most cases we try for 2% risk money (2% of portfolio) unless such a position size exceeds 15-20% of overall portfolio in actual position size. Each trader is different and each has a different allowance of open trades. I like to keep the overall money in the trade around 10-15% of portfolio per position in case of gaps against you. Stops are generally executed at the end of day and I personally never place a stop order, all my stops are mental; remember, the middle man gets to see everyone's cards. When you are not in tune with the market or opportunities just aren't that spectacular, I take my risk per position down to 1% or even half a percent of portfolio value.
Each trader is different and must determine their own level of comfort with risk. I do have a channel stop which I provide to TeleChart/StockFinder users for automated stops, I appreciate you using my links to sign up if you do. The Trend Channel catches trends and works well as it automatically adjusts for each stock's volatility. Arbitrary exits based on nervousness about the markets WILL decrease the portfolio performance dramatically. This system will not ever get you in at market bottoms or tops. The recent 1 year performance against the Russell 2k buy and hold had the system beating it by 3:1. Ultimately it is up to you as to how you proceed, but I'm always available to help you determine what might work best for you.
I do use other scans and systems when market conditions warrant their use and may change strategy with market conditions.
The MOST IMPORTANT tool you have to bring you long term success is RISK MANAGEMENT. There are plenty of articles linked at Trade-Guild.net on Risk Management. We can be wrong 75% of the time and still outperform the market with solid, consistent risk management.
Position Sizing
The position sizes noted in the positions @ 2% risk of portfolio are based on a $20,000 portfolio-adjust as needed. Due to tight stops, there is the possibility, even probability that one position could take up the entire portfolio. You need to decide how many positions you want to trade and reduce the position size according to that. For instance, if you want to trade 5 positions in a $20,000 portfolio, no one position should be valued at more than $4,000-not risk money or 2% rule, but share price entry x shares.
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Futures Update BR-EXIT Edition - So the conventional wisdom couldn't have been more wrong. Those chasing risk and closing hedges couldn't be in a worse place right now. I would still remin...8 years ago
10 comments:
Brandt, could we get an update on the market?
thanks
It seems that the market is only following the EUR/USD trade to the upside. If the EUR/USD goes down then it finds some other excuse to stay flat or go up. We should be a roughly $119 on the SPY right now according to valuation of the EUR/USD trade from where it was last week. True market valuations are going to get crushed by reduced margins from higher input costs by the time the FED is done. By that time I fear that the money in our accounts aren't going to be worth anything anyways. So it won't matter if we make a million because it will take 2 million to buy lunch!!!
Brandt, do we have any update for the morning with respect to 3C.
Comments on this?
Is An ATM Cash Shortage Coming?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/08/2010 11:35 -0500
Ben Bernanke Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
Some potentially troubling news out of ATM land: "I work with a business partner in the [region redacted] . We have combined between us 180 ATM machines that we service, Cash Load. In order to do this we NEED to order the money, 20's only from several banks on a weekly basis. This is a considerable amount weekly, 380k plus. Here is the interesting piece that is developing: In the past several weeks 4 of the MAJOR banks have informed us that they can no longer provide us with the cash for our business."
Mislav, I'll update as soon as something happens, it's just trading in line and in a trading range. There's really nothing to report about direction right now.
BRANDT. Thank you for posting pictures of the **(DAILY SPY)*** chart like I asked. The MINUTE charts are good for DAY TRADERS. But for us that are accumulating for LONG TERM trades, we DEFINITELY want to see the **(DAILY)** charts like the DAILY SPY.
Thanks AGAIN BRANDT for posting pictures of the ***(DAILY SPY)**** chart like I asked. Hopefully you will post the DAILY SPY charts (EVERYDAY). Thank you.
No problem MEEE, the only thing is the daily chart is very slow to move. I'll definitely post it if it shows any movement.
XING is starting to take off. Any updates for this stock?
Nice call on LPX, Brandt.
Thanks ANON. Did you get in? It may have another confirmation day tomorrow if it closes strong today.
XING loks to be pretty healthy on this move.
No, I did not get in LPX and just as well as it lost its bounce on the day and is now barely green.
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