I usually don't get to worked up about after and premarket trading, the first hour -hour and a half of the trading day also is not always that insightful as a lot of the action is designed to tae advantage of retail limit orders set before people head off to work.
Thus far it looks like a fade will set in early, but the underlying action through the rest of the day will hold the real insight. As far as I know, this is being hailed as a rally born of good numbers out of China, but as I mentioned several times during the trading day yesterday and last night, we're in a pretty god position for an oversold bounce and last night's 2:1 Price volume relationship of Prices down and volume up is more often then not a sign of a short term oversold market.
If you read toward the bottom, I mentioned to watch the European debt auctions, I'll get into that later, but there were some pretty nasty occurrences. The ADP employment number has been notoriously way off base and it contradicts the earlier Challenger employment number, but in a bounce situation, the market is going to bounce-th pundits will ascribe the reasons why, which more then not, have nothing to do with the situation.
16 comments:
Brandt, just in case you didn't see my post on the other message:
You need to stop ignoring when 3C gets it badly wrong. 3C had the SPY pointing to $180, and DIA to DOW of less than 11k. As well as oil, silver, gold down...
... ALL BADLY WRONG.
You're acting like a politician, making calls on both sides (3C saying down, but other 'indicators' like price/volume relationship saying 'bounce'), so you can say that you were right in hindsight by covering both sides... it just doesn't wash!
Well, we're nearly an hour and half into the action and the market is still as strong as the open... so where's this 'fade early on'?
Also worth noting that the EUR/USD has fallen to below september levels. But the DOW is only 200 points off of highs. Meaning a strong dollar has had no negligible affect on the the markets... which was suppose to happen. There was much talking of the 'inverse relationship' between US markets and commodities priced in $dollars and the $dollar, all turned out to not be the case.
As usual you ignore the facts and pick your own. Just the last week I've been talking a lot about the correlation not holding up. Furthermore, I cover all of my bases? Is that because I've been saying bounce for a week or just once yesterday?
Here's the take of another subscriber
"Hi Brandt,
I was anticipating this bounce and along with your insight went fully
long at the close yesterday. "
You are very short sighted, I addressed that in last night's post as well.
"Hi Brandt,I was anticipating this bounce and along with your insight went fully
long at the close yesterday. "
Is there a different subscription service or something? Where did this person get this insight?
Last night you said "PLEASE do not think that I'm suggesting this market is going to do anything dramatic to the upside"
All the indexes are now up over 2.0% each. That is dramatic!
Wolf,
Yep, all part of the scam... cover both sides and then you can look like you're never wrong, and when you're right, you can just ignore the part that suggested otherwise.
What happened to 'fading the gap' early on Brandt?
Brandt,
You constantly change your story to suit. You said that the whole reason for the 1400+ DOW surge since early september was because of the weak dollar correlation...
... but when the $dollar strengthened to the level BEFORE september and the indices still at highs you then change your story and gave the explanation that the correlation has broken down.
You change your story to suit to look like you have a clue as to what is going on. Only in last nights post you suggested that the EUR would be trading at $1.25, well, it just shot up to $1,31.5!
You also said that you shorted gold, which is now approaching $1400 and silver going up and up... even though you said it looked 'bad' at $20.
It's got all the hallmarks of a scam.
Today has seen a ton of good numbers which has caused the markets to rocket, all of which 'smart money' should have known about and because 3C is suppose to follow smart money it should have been indicating that this bounce would occur... it did not, it SUGGESTED THE OPPOSITE.
Hows that daily 3C SPY looking Brandt? Let me guess it's gone through the roof, even though it suggested a Hefty sell-off.
US officials just committed America to backing the bailout of Europe through the IMF. Brandt, did 3C pick this up and what is it showing now?
Guys, gather up your monopoly money!!!! Where the f#@% do they think we are going to get the money to help bail out Europe when we can't even address our own problems here.
Jack,
3C doesn't pick anything up worth following. It can't be trusted, it's right only a small fraction of the time, which means you're better off flipping a coin which will be correct 50% of the time. How can you possibly follow something that is only right a small fraction of the time and when it's wrong, it's wrong big.
What about OIL Brandt, you said last night that it was looking bad... well it's now up over $2 a barrel.
Perfect example of you coming up with your own facts. Show me where I shorted Gold.
Nuff said.
Brandt, can you please update spy, slv and gld as soo as possible. Thanks
Brandt,
You posted negative 3C charts for gold and said:
"Back to GLD and SLV. Today is the first time I've placed an actual trade on the list for gold and it is a limit order trade, so it needs to “show me” before it is triggered. I'm mystified by the action in GLD, a bit less mystified in SLV. However, a trade is a trade, with good risk management there's no reason you can't try it, even if it ends up wrong."
What happened to 'looks like the gap will be faded early on'.
I don't think you have a clue Brandt, seriously.
EURO is putting in what appears to be a bull flag pattern which should send our market higher, Silver Higher and all my positions much lower.
Brandt,
You also said you were short last night:
"The daily 3C charts of all 3 are at or below where 3C started at the beginning of the September rally. This is a horrendous leading negative divergence. In essence, there's no institutional support at these levels, but they have been active from what we see in 3C, actively purging their portfolios of long positions and surely entering short positions. It's getting to the point where I'm short, but actually concerned about the sell-off that could and by the looks of the charts below absolutely should ensue. I'm worried because if it looks like 2008, no one can predict what kinds of price controls beyond circuit breakers may be put in place. I'd prefer a smooth downtrend like we've seen in BAC over complete chaos."
If you want conversation or whatever you are after, post facts.
"You also said that you shorted gold, which is now approaching $1400 and silver going up and up"
and as you posted yourself, it is clear I DID NOT SHORT GOLD.
Keep it legitimate.
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