Tuesday, December 7, 2010

RBS Trade

RBS is a high probability/low risk trade here.

 RBS 5 min

 RBS 15 shows a short period of accumulation for a bounce and it is now very negative

 RBS 15 confirming

 60 min

 1 day actually looks worse then appears, it's not only confirming, but negative as well.

The downtrend is unbroken and nearly 2.5 months long.

The stop I have depicted is at the red trendline.

Here's an example of a position with a $10k account @ 2% risk.

Assumed entry= $13.00

Stop= $13.60

Risk per share= $.60 (initially-it can move down to less risk in the trend channel once it moves down)
2% of portfolio (risk money=$200)

$200 (2% of $10k) / risk per share $.60=333 shares

Total purchase= $4329 which is too much risk -nearly half of the portfolio, but illustrates the lower risk profile of the trade.

In this case, to protect against gaps, with a $10k portfolio, I'd personally take on between 100-150 shares, which leaves your exposed risk (less unpredictable gaps) at $60-$90 risk on the trade, plus commission or about a half to 1 % of portfolio.

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