Friday, January 14, 2011

Last Post Until the Weekend Wrap

Back to that JPM earnings play.

Here's XLF (ETF for financials) closing chart.
XLF closed near the highs of the day, volume was up from yesterday, but not overwhelming or curious volume.

And JPM...


After being up as much as 3.35%, JPM gave back a majority of today's gains closing well off its highs and forming a shooting star-like candle (negative implications). Also volume was the highest we've seen since the -4.3% sell-off on October 15th- 65 trading days!  This was not good volume for today, taken with the 3C charts I provided in the earlier post, it's clear that today was a distribution day. I'd almost call it churning if JPM didn't give up 2.32% of today's gains (about 2/3rds) and if we didn't see the actual distribution via the 3C charts. I didn't dig into JPM' earnings, but this was a "Sell the news" kind of day.

Intraday, looking at today on a 1-minute chart, we see a rounding formation/top. Note the price advance on the way up had its corrections and looked very much like a retail driven advance. Volume was substantial during the earlier part of the day, but nothing like the afternoon meltdown. During the afternoon sell-off, which we did not see broadly in financials as XLF closed near its highs, note the relative lack of corrections. This is indicative of computer driven trade. The decline was faster and the volume much heavier.

It will be interesting to see what happens next week, but for today, JPM underperformed financials and did not show us a strong day after earnings. This is why I explained that the 3C earnings calls are NOT about beat or miss, they are about the trading action after earnings. Remember last night after INTC's earnings, they were up I think close to 2% in after hours and look at INTC today- down 1.03% on a 1.11% Beta vs the S&P 500 up +.72% and INTC also saw the heaviest daily volume since October 13th.

Neither's trading action was favorable and I think JPM will join INTC as a probable second correct call-2 for 2 thus far? We'll see next week.


Look for the weekend wrap up and have a FANTASTIC WEEKEND!

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