Friday, January 21, 2011

Requested Trade Updates -NEM, GDX, SLV and UUP

Some people are in these trades and I've had email update requests. I think some are also going to be in good position to open a trade shortly so I decided to publish this on the main page. 

Here's the NEM daily which was an idea for entry on December 10th as a short. It's down nearly 10% since and despite some wild swings, it's trending fairly well.

 Because the swings have been so wild, the trend channel is set pretty loose @ $57.69 an alternative stop, which would also be an interesting entry would be above the last swing high around $57.00. Be aware though at a price over $57.00 the downtrend is officially broken as a higher high would be created, at least on a closing basis. An entry intraday above $57 with a close below $57 that same day would be a favorable entry into NEM.

 The 5 min chart is showing a positive divergence over the last 3 days so I'd expect we will see some sort of bounce, you may want to lock in partial profits or try to trade around the bounce with a new position at a higher level as well. As always, feel free to email for specific ideas regarding your positions.


Here's my moving average screen which remains in a solid sell position, the next pulback on a bounce is likely to end up between the 10 and 22 day moving averages (yellow and blue respectively) around the red box. A reversal in 3C in this area could also make for a good entry.
 
GDX s an idea featured 1/3/2011 and is also down nearly 10% on a short trade.

 GDX trends better then NEM and the Trend Channel stop is set to $57.26 generally. If you are Swing or position/Trend trading you may want to email me for stops more appropriate for your trade.

 Again, my moving average trade screen which is also still solidly on a sell/short signal shows an area which GDX is likely to bounce toward. As above, our first pullback tends to be to the 10-day moving average and the second to the 22 day or just shy of it.

3C has traced out negative divergences on every lower high in the down trend and now has a modest positive divergence suggesting a bounce.

Here is SLV's downtrend with lower highs and lows-so far a pretty orderly downtrend. MACD looks excellent. 

 SLV's 3C daily chart showed confirmation in the uptrend with 3C making consecutive higher highs with price until it reached the triangle top. The false breakout in late December served as the downside catalyst-as usual, false moves tend to turn around fairly quickly.

 SLV's current T.C. stop is $28.40 which could also be used to enter or add to a position there.

The 10 min 3C SLV chart is showing a 1 day positive divergence. Since it's not that big, I'd think the stop above would be about right.

UUP, like many wedges has consolidated into a bull flag-like base. It's currently at lower channel support, I'd think it would hold, but as usual, near support there's often fishing expeditions for stops. A break below the channel which then re-enters the channel should make for a decent entry as I said above, false breakouts tend to reverse quickly.


Here's UUP's negative and positive divergences which have called the trend very well, it's currently showing a positive divergence so I'd think some upside is going to take place sooner then later.



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