As I mentioned earlier in Egyptian reports (and if you think this doesn't matter look at the market on Friday) the worst scenario is starting to take shape. I mentioned earlier that armed Hamas militants which is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt which has been banned from parliamentary elections is now eyeing a coalition government. Obviously factions of Hamas will insert themselves into the process.
The reality of Egyptian politics is there can be no leader without the military's consent and Mubarak's attempts to lay the ground work for his son Gamal to take his place is what had started the friction between Hosni Mubarak and the military. Events transpiring in Tunisia just brought things to a head. The military must work quickly to install their choice for leadership before the people demand popular elections. Everyday Mubarak is in power (which keeps the protests alive), the likelihood of popular elections becomes a bigger thorn in the side of the military.
Now somehow out of left field Mohamed El Baradei is claiming the mantle of popular opposition leader when the truth is that many hold him in low regard for having been absent from Egypt and the popular movement, he has in a way tried to paint himself as the people's choice when there has been no substantial reports of any kind suggesting this.
The one clear danger is that the Muslim Brotherhood who has spent many years feeding, clothing and giving medical aid to Egyptians stands to gain a lot of ground and this is very much at odds with the military. There hasn't been one leader in Egypt that hasn't come from high up in the military ranks since the era of modern Egypt.
As I said in my last analysis, throughout US history our political and economic decisions have had profound and unexpected economic consequences. For instance, the hallmark of Quantitative Easing in Emerging Economies has been rampant inflation followed by worldwide inflation protests and riots as people can not afford to feed themselves. I also made mention that it wouldn't take long for Egyptians to realize that the tear gas being lobbed at them from the police an internal security forces is US made. I posted this today in the morning, now the Jerusalem Post reports that anger against the U.S. And Israel is building. Rallies are now starting to take on an anti-American tone recently. Egyptians are also angry at the lack of response from major world leaders with the U.S. Topping the list. A 20 meter long message was scrolled in Sunday's protest saying, “Go away Mubarak, you are from the Americans and you are working for them”. Another protester summed the feeling up as the following, “The U.S does not support democracy, they support Israel which is like their baby”
Obviously the Americans and other world leaders want to maintain Egypt as the key Arab state ally it has been. To back any leader at this point is impossible and counterproductive. The tentative support for Mubarak is seemingly fading fast as that outcome is no longer a reality.
The analysis I laid out earlier regarding the infighting between Mubarak and the military as to the next leader has taken on a sudden and very dangerous shift. It s no longer clear that the military can establish a new leader of it's own choosing as the message of demonstrators is “Democracy” and as I said in the last report, the 1979 revolution in Iran is a prime example of how the popular protest and what becomes the controlling authority often diverge dramatically. Events are unfolding faster then I thought they would and with militant Islamic factions now coordinating protests, the chances of another long, drawn out ugly fight for power is becoming every more increasing. One of the main reasons for this is the military structure itself. As mentioned before, it's the higher ups that have chosen the leaders and where the leadership has been chosen from, but the middle class military are the ones with boots on the ground and in closer contact with the ordinary citizen. The higher ups may be politically too far removed from the will of the people to get another leader of their choice in power this time.
Ramifications of Egypt falling apart are already being felt from the price of oil and the potential for the Suez to be dominated by hostile forces as well as other key American allies feeling pressure such as King Abdullah of Jordan where protests have taken place, not to mention the shifting political landscape that may leave Israel in a very vulnerable position.
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