Analysis

The market is consolidating, you might expect the uncertainty that has been lifted, in some manner, to rally the markets. The truth is, the regime is still in power in Egypt as the regime has always been a military regime since Nasser. Mubarak asked the military to take control of the country? Probably with one of his most trusted general's with a gun to his head-I'm serious about that.

So we may expect the market to rally, in  the short term Egyptians are of course happy, one woman on Al Jazeera said she now feels like "anything is possible", however the structural and inflationary problems that sparked unrest in Tunisia and then Egypt have not abated and the military won't be able to change that.

What is more significant is whether and/or when the market realizes that there are a doze or more countries on the brink of becoming the next Egypt or Tunisia and this victory over Mubarak may inspire them to rise up in protest. Not all of these countries have the underlying stability of the military regime, thus some of the next protests nd movements could take a much different turn. This is not a democracy revolution, that is not what sparked it, although democracy was the face that was quickly painted on the movement.

If the market reacts badly, and it may be several days or so before that happens, then you can probably rest assured that it is thinking about this revolution spreading and while two have gone down semi-peacefully, it in no way suggests that model will continue in further unrest.

As I said yesterday, this is the start, not the end.