GLD

OK, maybe I'm losing it, but I thought I just showed this triangle in GLD yesterday, although I can't find the price. Maybe it was an email response or maybe my I am losing it?

Here's the GLD chart, I suspect that we are seeing a flight to safety here, there's a lot of talk about stealth bank runs-not the kind where people line up at the door of the bank, but where corporations, etc click a mouse button and empty an account. Egypt just put in a maximum limit withdrawal of $10k when their banks open, obviously trying to prevent exactly that and as the unrest is global, I think the bank run fears are far beyond Egypt. Not to mention inflation which I will cover in a post I've been working on for a few hours now. The latest non-manufacturing ISM today beat, but once again, it's what's behind the headline and what's behind the headline is the prices paid part of the index which jumped 3.7% to highs not seen since 3Q of 2008. Bernanke will be speaking soon at 1 p.m., will he ever recognize inflation? So GLD is up today out of a nice tight triangle.

 Here's the tight triangle and while GLD may have been headed toward a downside correction, the worldwide events have to clear the slate and we have to start with new analysis as fundamentals that largely were not discountable have changed. The breakout thus far is not showing any great volume so it needs to be watched if you are long here.

 This is so deja-vu, I have to find the GLD update. In any case, here's the 10 min intraday triangle with 3C confirmation and a very recent positive divergence, and it's interesting where it happened.

 The positive divergence took hold on a dip BELOW the triangle-so once again we have the concept of the black box trading systems running stops-PLEASE consider keeping your stops mental and end of day if at all possible. They have the entire order book and they know what technicians think when they see a triangle like this, they'll take advantage of it nearly every time. Thus far we have pretty decent confirmation on the move, no real extreme selling although you can see a small negative divergence bringing prices off today's highs.

Here's a Heiken Ashi chart on an hourly timeframe, the candle is bullish-remember Heiken Ashi charts read differently then candlestick charts and while the upper wick in a candlestick chart is a little bearish, in a Heiken Ashi chart it IS BULLISH. You can also see the volatility squeeze in the Bollinger Bands implying a highly directional move is about to take place. Pure technicians would have read this triangle as a continuation triangle, meaning a break to the downside, so when there was that small drop below support, any technicians shorting it were at an instantaneous loss when prices moved higher causing them to cover and causing the demand side of the equation to push prices higher,it's a mini bear trap scenario. Later I'll try to get a more in depth analysis of GLD and try to see what is going on here. As I said about oil, the same applies for gold, they are not going to let surprise events cause these to go too far north without having the chance of accumulating shares.