Tuesday, March 15, 2011

EEE

Well, I got enough emails on EEE that I'll just post. Many are wondering if they should add here, I think it's risky, but if you use strict risk management and have a tight stop on the second position, you may be able to get away with it with little risk, at least to the second position. First though, make sure your risk management on the first position is airtight.

EEE does have some daily support in the area coming from 2 sources.

The 1 min chart DID NOT confirm the move down which is bullish.

Nor did the 5 min chart and we have leading positive divergences.

Same with the 10 minute, it's too early to go any further then the 10 minute, but the longer charts are positive from before today. You may want to wait for a move back above that trend line. Personally I prefer to add only when a position is working for me.

As for TSO, it needs to show strength today and close back above $25.83-ish. Otherwise, I'd probably reduce my exposure to the position if not close it entirely. The market is likely going to be very volatile, we may even see a 1-day oversold condition today that could provide a bounce tomorrow. Look at the 2007/2008 top declines and you'll see the first major break doesn't usually lead to a big mov down, there's bounces and such, that's why tops are so difficult. That' not to say that we haven't already seen that behavior. Fundamentals are now solidly in control of the markets which means that FEAR prevails and if you look at any bull market vs a bear market, you'll see that bear markets fall faster and harder in less time, thus FEAR is the strongest and most irrational emotion in the market, again, making tops exceptionally volatile.

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