Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Market Breadth

Enough time has passes that we can get a picture of the market's breadth today.

 Here's the Advance / Decline Ration for the NASDAQ 100, while it's obviously positive, it is also losing momentum with fewer stocks advancing and more declining into the rally. This doesn't seem to make much sense, but you have to account for the way the NASDAQ 100 is weighted. Each stock of the 100 is not weighted at 1%, for example AAPL accounts for nearly 20% of the NASDAQ's weight, so it's not so hard to move the index up by pushing up stocks with heavier weighting. This is why we can see a fall in the percentage of stocks advancing and still have the index up. This indicates once again, as shown yesterday and last night, that there is poor market breadth and the advances in the averages are coming from a handful of stocks with high weighting. Ultimately this is bearish as broad market strength is not part of the advance. It appears to be what I mentioned early yesterday morning (or the day before-I don't remember which-sorry), that the market is being short term manipulated to keep returns for funds (hedge funds, mutual funds, etc) as high as possible to attract new investors and keep redemptions low.

 I ran the same on all 500 S&P components and there's a similar trend.

This indicator simple counts the number of stocks making new 250 minute highs vs those making new 250 minute lows. The highs have been kept in check which is not good breadth, they should be rising with the index. Earlier on the gap fill, there were a lot of stocks making new 250 minute lows. This is the NASDAQ 100.

Here's the same indicator for the S&P-500

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