Thursday, March 3, 2011

Market Update

Some strange readings, but they are what they are.

DIA
 3C 1 min in a negative divergence compared to yesterday's levels, but there is an attempt to confirm, this is a relative negative divergence as 3C should be higher then yesterday in true confirmation.


 The 5 min chart with a "possible" negative divergence brewing, it needs to turn down to confirm

 The Advance / Decline Ratio of the Dow 30 has been going down most of the day, now we see a pump, this is the strange part, not sure if I trust the situation, I trust the indicator, but at these gains that extra pump seems out of place.

IWM

 IWM 1 min 3C is the same, it's trying to confirm within a relative negative divergence.

 If I zoomed in and didn't consider yesterday's data, you can see the attempt to confirm, although it's still a relative negative divergence.

 The 5 min chart is looking bad here -this one makes some sense....

 Because of the A/D chart looking the same on the 5 min scale.

QQQQ
 1 min 3C, no attempt to even confirm, just negative and leading.

 The 5 min may also be starting a negative divergence, but again it needs to turn down here.

 The A/D line makes some sense with a recent surge, but nothing too remarkable considering the bigger trend for the day

SPY
 SPY is the closest to actual confirmation right now on the 1 min chart.

 The 5 min chart is the same as the others, it may be starting to go negative, but we need that turn down to confirm.

And the A/D ratio of advancing issues, less declining issues-another out of place recent surge...

on the hourly chart, again as I mentioned yesterday, we are at the target I was guessing we would hit-the top of the wedge, we may still see a move to $134.50 which is where I'd be very suspicious of a breakout and watch it for a false move. This is what I'd try to do if I were on the institutional side, I'd knock out the shorts from the decline on Tuesday and draw in the longs on a failed wedge, then I'd take the market back below $134.50 and trap the longs being that the market overall has a negative bias and events are very uncertain. Their job is to create as much volume as they can, you can see it's falling off right now, they aren't making money on falling volume, so a technical breakout that draws in the technical traders would do the job. That's what I'd try for if I were on the institutional side.

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