Friday, March 25, 2011

Put this in the toolbox

Parabolic moves in downtrends....

This is just another form of what I've been calling for in the bounce in the market this week, that "scary" component. Yesterday I mentioned the parabolic move in the EUR/USD pair and warned that it'll likely fall as fast as it went up. The key here is was an established downtrend, so the move up is a shakeout. If there were no downtrend, then the concept is different. We'll discuss the differences when an example shows up, but for now, take a look at the move yesterday and today's subsequent reaction. It's a cousin of the false breakout, headfake, etc that we see so often in the market the last two years. It will get worse as volume declines more so it's an adjustment you have to make in your understanding of the market, otherwise you're likely to get bounced from an otherwise good position or miss an opportunity to take advantage of a nice set up that is occurring more and more frequently.


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