Thursday, March 17, 2011

WMT Trade Alert (short)

WMT has moved (I believe) far enough away from the volatility of the top that it can now enter a stage 4 trending decline and it may start that next leg down today.

WMT which is a stock that faces significant cost input inflation for many good, nearly all good they sell, is a prime target for diminishing EPS moving forward. It's a massive example in an equity of the problem of stagflation. As you can see, it tested the resistance level and has moved down from there. I feel better about stocks that are out of the range of easy manipulation that creates volatility near tops. Also note the volume. It appears that there is massive de leveraging occurring.

 The 1 min chart shows WMT in a negative divergence, that on top of the fact that it has shown no relative strength today. These are the things to watch for when a market bounces-the stocks that don't participate as they have a good chance of becoming the worst performers once the market moves down again.

I'd still try to keep my initial trade entry stop a bit wide, otherwise, I think WMT is very close to starting the next leg down and becoming a trending candidate.

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