Thursday, April 7, 2011

A MACRO LOOK

No 1 min 3C charts here, just 15, 30 and 60 mins (the longer the chart, the more impact and importance).

 The price/volume action itself says something. Rising prices into falling volume are not indicative of strength, it tells us that traders are more and more reluctant to chase prices higher. In our red box, it's the "V" word, volatility and the DIA is nearing a new lower low breaking the uptrend decisively.

 The 15 minute chart gives you a clear picture of the accumulation/distribution cycle I've mentioned and the fractal/micro view of the 4 stages of a rally (accumulation-seen at the white arrow, mark up with 3C making higher highs until the start of the red arrow, distribution seen at the red arrow and stage 4 is decline)

 The 30 min chart confirming the same cycle with distribution on this long timeframe, it's pretty serious.

The 60-min chart, I didn't mark accumulation but you can see it at the far left. For anyone who didn't see last night's "Stochastics Post" we have the overbought situation I mentioned that can go on for awhile, but when we add an RSI negative divergence, the Stochastics signal becomes much more reliable. In the bottom is the RSI negative divergence, in the middle the stochastics signal turning down and at the top a negative 3C divergence on a 60 min chart. Make sure you read last night's stochastics post as to the importance of the signal here and now.

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