ADM idea my daily data has a glitch so here's an hourly chart, ADM is a longer term idea, but it's already broke the lower trendline, it should get a little bounce from here, as usually happens, failed breakouts fall fast. This should be a decent trending trade, but positioning is key and a decently wide enough stop to accommodate the upside shakeout that will eventually come.
Here's ADM's failed breakout of a major triangle top.
EDZ Trade Idea So far, so good. This also had a downside shakeout, not huge, but enough. Watch volume today, it should increase. There will likely be a little lateral action or even a slight pullback at the next resistance zone, but you probably want to consider being in the trade by the time it breaks out, it should occur on volume and you should check with me to make sure it's confirmed. I like this ETF a lot.
A little intraday pullback seems to be in the works, maybe an area to start building a position if you like the trade. As usual and with all of these trades, the initial stop should be wider then you would normally use, tops are volatile and until there's a nasty break, Wall St. will shake the tree trying to create uncertainty and the profits they make from that.
FAZ Trade Idea This is the first time I've noticed the triangle in FAZ, that also means it's not far off support and this is a fairly low risk area for the trade, keep in mind the 3x leverage here. There hasn't been a downside breakout which is unusual, so I'd have a stop wide enough to accommodate one just in case. The price pattern target implication could be from $65-$85!
FXP Trade There's a nice breakout today!
Intraday, I'd be looking for a pullback, a pullback to the breakout point would likely dip below it a bit, that would also be an ideal spot to put the trade on, but that's patience, it may not go there, if it does though, I'd seriously consider this one if you didn't already.
HOG is in a decent spot now for a short, it will probably pullback a little on a bounce, but it's broken the major top and the consolidation, the further it moves from the top, the harder it will be and more expensive it will be to manipulate it back up there. If the opportunity comes about to short this at $38, I'd take a serious look at it. I even like it here, but again, the stops for tops have to be wide. You could always try it here with an intraday trailing stop as well.
This trend chanel setting on HOG captures pretty decent swings.
This wider channel captures trends.
IWM has retraced the ascending wedge, at least the smaller.
There' a larger wedge in play too, IWM should make it there no problem with a bounce or two along the way. We have to be realistic about the market action, it doesn't just drop straight like a rock. Even the 2008 sell-off which was nasty had many up days within the trend, that's why I use the trend channel instead of trying to guess where to place stops or to stop out.
Here's the bigger picture, some accumulation on the wedge and distribution was heavy. This is an example of one that reversed without the false break (or the 15% or reversals-most will have the false break component).
IWM shorter on a 1 min chart looks like the rest of the market, it looks to be setting up a bounce. We want to welcome those bounces and use them as tactical entries for strategic positions.
TLT-go figure, an inverse H&S. This may turn out to be a good play on a break out, but volume NEEDS to pick up!
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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