Market Update

So the idea yesterday was we would see some upside today as today would be the perfect day to lift the market before a bad NFP number on Friday. The Q's and IWM did exactly that, the SPY got close, the DOW is the biggest laggard.

Right now the Market is dropping like the Fed announcement I just mentioned was just released, although it was released a bit ago. It would make some sense as the negative divergence sending the market lower wasn't huge so a surprise announcement would have fit the bill. Of course it could just be they spent a little time setting up the chess board, but today has me a bit frustrated.

Here's what the Q's look like in several time frames.

 Long term, this makes sense with a breakout move up that fails, for me this is the most important outlook, longer term negative. It has all the components of a reversal.

 Here's yesterday's accum. at the lows and today's negative action into the late afternoon. Still makes sense even on the short term in which yesterday the idea was to lift the market into the NFP which allows some relief of oversold conditions and shorting into a bad NFP number.

 The 5 min looks the same.

 As does the 1 min, but notice the last negative divergence really isn't that deep, that's what is frustrating, but all considered, it seems to make sense even if it doesn't look exactly like what I'd anticipate.

The SPY...

 Long term, we have the breakout seen before reversals which appears to have failed-makes sense.

 Another look at the complete cycle, makes perfect sense.

The action yesterday and into today's morning lows and the negative divergence here make sense, the only thing that doesn't is that the SPY didn't perform better today.

The IWM

 Long term, the same set up, a breakout to new highs that appears as if it has failed. This is the common theme among reversals.


 A look at the entire cycle and a nasty leading negative divergence now.

 This 5 min chart also shows the positive action into yesterdays lows as well as the gap down this a.m., timing and all make sense here.

Again, this 1 min chart is what is frustrating, but it appears the bigger picture is negative, there was some relief with the IWM up around .70% today near the highs.

My guess is the NFP will be bad tomorrow and the market should not react well to it.