Saturday, May 28, 2011

Retail Money is Leaving the Market

And why not? After Monday's performance, I suspect the bulk of the withdrawals took place for the week. Here's the weekly fund flow data from Lipper.


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- For the third week in a row equity fund investors were net redeemers from their accounts, taking out approximately $5.6 billion for the week ended May 25, 2011. The three-week total now stands at -$12.7 billion, the worst figure for this group since August 2010.

- Taxable bond funds scarcely missed a beat as they accumulated another $3.8 billion this week despite a slowdown in corporate debt issuance that may squeeze good new opportunities ahead.

- The year’s belle of the ball, Loan Participation Funds, saw their inflows slow to less than $500 million as the market for bank loan funds softened for the third week.

- Municipal debt funds had outflows of about $300 million, an uptick from the previous week, but still better than its four-week moving average.

- The High Yield Muni category had inflows for the third week in a row as investors have eyed its nice yields and supportive market tone.

- Money market funds took in $10.7 billion as institutions added $11.3 billion and retail investors withdrew $600 million 

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The above information makes it difficult for Wall Street to pick pockets when there are fewer pockets available to be picked. What would turn this trend around?

Fear and Greed-the fear of missing the boat and the greed of missing the boat.



On a different subject, take a look at this article from Trade-Guild

While yesterday's activity in which the dollar was down and oil was essentially flat, is rather rare. I'm going to try to figure out an average move we should see based on historical data between a rising or falling dollar and oil's performance. However the idea here is when we see the underperformance of crude in a weak dollar environment, you should take a look at buying NUGT for a quick trade. When we see the opposite, a stronger dollar and rising crude, the play would be DUST.

I'll get back to you on the correlation values that should trigger those trades.

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