Thursday, May 19, 2011

Treasuries Trade

I highlighted Treasuries several days ago, but also warned to expect a pullback, based on my belief we'd see that upside move in the market (treasuries are trading exactly inversely to the market). TMF seems to be the only real alternative as it is 3X leveraged and looks like after a decent pullback it could see 40-50% of upside. So lets take a look and identify a target area to look at buying TMF.

 A bullish inverse H&S base with a breakout.

 Here TMF shows the negative divergence and the probability of the pullback I mentioned.

The 3 day trend channel has held every move up and down so looking at a purchase in the area of $32.50-$33 or thereabouts, would be a low risk, and most likely a high probability position. You may want to set an alert for price moving below $33.50

No comments: