Monday, June 27, 2011

Financials Update/FAS/FAZ

 FAS intraday is currently in a consolidation, it's not moving much like the averages since the last update in which some negative divergences appeared which has me thinking the run in the averages after the last market update, may be a false move setting up some downside.

 Here's the hourly chart of FAS which has been positive, but there also has been a trading range, this is what has me thinking that the market hasn't staged its bounce as of yet, but appears to have built up a large enough base that it could see quite a move. The timing of a bounce and the lateral trade may reflect a wait and see attitude with regard to Greece which will likely be the main driver of sentiment, especially this week.

 The 10 min chart shows positive divergences again near the lower end of the range. This is common accumulation price action, the position being accumulated is always accumulated at the best price point possible and when the stock/market runs up too far, it's knocked back down again keeping the accumulation range in place. This could be because they are picking up a large position or are waiting on a specific catalyst such as a news event, Greece would be the obvious choice, especially this week.

 FAS on a 5 min chart shows the same behavior as what we see above.

 The 1 min chart s largely in line with price and isn't giving any solid signal or edge as to the intraday direction from this consolidation.

 Here's the new version of 3C on a 30 min chart, also showing a similar positive divergence within the range. The second smaller red arrow is what I was talking about when the price gets too far away from the accumulation zone, they simply let some supply out and push prices back into the range.

Here is a comparative chart of FAZ (the opposite of FAS, FAZ is the bear ETF for financials), basically showing the opposite of what we see in FAS. Although the daily chart of FAZ is strong and implies that any bounce is likely to see distribution and a new leg down, likely to new lows. However, one bridge at a time.

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