Friday's Closing Trade

Friday's closing trade internals gave the most interesting readings we've seen all week.

First in out 5+/-5% or more trades, the dominant theme was Close >5% on rising volume-45 stocks. In second place was Close down 5% or more on declining volume-15 stocks, so the dominant relationship was 300% greater then the second place relationship and it's a bullish relationship. In 3rd and 4th place there were a total of 15 more trades total, so the dominant theme was strong.

As for all NYSE stocks, we had another dominant theme, close down and volume up-3429 stocks. In second place (just for comparison of the dominant theme) close down and volume down at 1921. In this scenario with an 8 day down trend, the dominant theme is bullish, suggesting short term capitulation and a possible/probable short term bottom is at hand.

The Dow also had a dominant price volume relationship of close down and volume up (as I suggested we may see toward the end of the day Friday). This relationship was strong at 22 of the 30 Dow stocks. The second place relationship (for comparison purposes) was close down and volume down at 5 stocks. Again, considering the recent trend, this is a bullish relationship, suggesting a short term bottom may be in place.

The NASDAQ 100 also had a dominant relationship which was bullish, 67 stocks closing down on higher volume, compared with second place at 27 stocks.

The S&P-500 came in at 302 closing down on higher volume, vs. second place (close down / volume down) at 170 stocks. Once again, an indication of short term capitulation and a possible short term bottom i place.

Finally the Russell 2000 came in at 1146 closing down on increasing volume vs. second place (close down / volume down) at 477 stocks.

All averages showed a strong price volume relationship which is bullish.

3C also is showing some bullish behavior in the SPY...

 The 5 min 3C chart held up pretty well into the close on Friday.

 The longer term charts have been building positive divergences-here's the 15 min.

 The 30 min which is now leading

And a very strong looking 60 min chart.

These would suggest that once our bounce starts, it should be a pretty impressive bounce.


The Australian Dollar (FXA) has als shown some predictive value in the past.

Here's the FXA in green compared to the S&P-500 in red (click on the chart for an expanded view). The S&P-500 has made new lows within the white box, while the Australian dollar has held above support with much stronger relative performance.