Friday, June 3, 2011

GLD/SLV

Strange, gold gaps up, silver gaps down this morning.

Lets start with gold, you may recall my macro outlook for gold summed up as a decent size pullback, then there's a good probability that pullback will create a buying oppurtunity (we'll have to confirm that on the pullback, but that's the plan as of now).

GLD's short term action (this morning)

 5 min 3C GLD- There was a negative divergence on GLD on the open, the exact opposite of silver in every way.

 GLD 10 min 3C, still negatively divergent even at higher prices this morning.

 The 15 min chart which tends to be the most influential as to swing moves and longer has been negative and did not improve even by a tick with the gap up this a.m. In fact look at where 3C is compared to yesterday and look at prices right now compared to yesterday. That's pretty darn close to a leading negative divergence.


Of course the daily still looks bad.

So my position on Gold/GLD remains the same despite the gap up this a.m.

As for Silver, I do believe as stated yesterday that there's a very god chance silver will continue lower off the bear pennant price consolidation. However, in the short term (the next day or two maybe), it looks like silver wants to move higher, maybe test the $37.50 level in SLV.

 SLV 5 min positive divergence (leading)

 SLV 10 min positive leading divergence

 PSLV 1 min Positive divergence

 PSLV 5 min positive leading divergence

 As for the longer term discussed, this doesn't change that analysis, the 15 min chart is still negatively divergent.

As is the 30 min chart

This looks to be a bounce of probably a short duration. Silver is headed lower intraday, but if it can form a range and continue positing positive divergences, it will give it that much more power on the bounce.

No comments: