Natural Gas Follow Up-UNG

Last Tuesday, May 24th I posted this on Natural gas which looked ready to make a break higher in the short run. From that day, we've seen roughly a 10% move.

 The white arrow is the post date, the red arrow is a false break down, which is one of the things I liked about the set up.

 Here's the 3C 15 min chart, showing accumulation in the range displayed above, right now we are seeing some signs of distribution on this swing move.

 I would place a trailing stop behind UNG using the Trend Channel on a 60 min chart. a 22 bar moving average on a 60 min chart is about the same as the trend channel. We want to lock in gains as this was meant to be a swing trade.

 For those looking at the longer term prospects for UNG which has way underperformed the rest of the commodity complex, go back to the original post and read about the fundamental reasons why UNG may very well be setting up for a bigger move. This is looking a lot like a big rounding bottom on the 5 day chart.

 Here's the 5-day 3C chart, also making this look like a significant bottom in UNG.

 The 5 day trend channel held most of the last move down, if you used it on a short of UNG, it caught an 85% return.

Using a similar Trend Channel, this would be the current stop.