Silver/Gold Update

I've been bearish on both Silver and Gold, particularly in the midterm, I think gold specifically may offer a long term opportunity to buy at a good price if it can fall for awhile longer. I'd consider going long gold around its 150-day sma (simple moving average).

 The large pennant n GLD suggested a directional move was coming as volatility narrowed. The false breakout was a sure sign that GLD was going to see a fast fall, which it has.

 More or less, anyone who bought within the red rectangle is now at a loss, the false breakout is what creates what I've called the snowball effect, as these buyers sell as their losses mount.

The concern with a first breakdown, is the often seen pullback or kiss the pattern good bye. I feel better that GLD will continue lower,  I have some concerns , but not as many as with SLV.

 Here's the 3C negative divergence on the breakout-a great timing signal and it gives you a good idea of what's to come, usually a steep sell-off. So far the 15 min 3C is in line with price, suggesting more downside to come.

 The 5 min chart is also in line with price, this is good for GLD shorts.

SLV

 The danger in SLV is the larger pattern in red, it could be considered to be something similar to a large bear pennant, which would have a deep downside target. These patterns aren't usually this large, but it's market psychology that creates them. You can see the recent break below the pennant.

 Today's intraday trade for SLV has been pretty bearish

However, I'd feel a lot better about SLV's downside prospects if it were to make a new low. Either way, SLV looks to be going lower, the question with SLV in particular is whether or not it tries to retrace/bounce back into the triangle before heading lower, which is an important question for those who are using options-it's a matter of timing.