Tuesday, July 5, 2011

EEE Follow Up 2

As suspected in my earlier EEE update today, EEE formed a triangle consolidation pattern and has since broken out of it.

 At the last update, early hints were apparent that a consolidation of a triangular nature would take place, as we can now see that is exactly what happened and we have a breakout of the consolidation pattern. Typically this type of consolidation would be considered a continuation pattern (continuing the preceding trend before the triangle). A symmetrical triangle carries NO inherent bullish of bearish bias like some of the other right angle triangle patterns, it depends on the preceding trend. The one thing I'm not very impressed with is volume coming out of the triangle and I view this as an opportunity to take partial profits if you missed the earlier chance. If volume picks up and we make a new intraday high, then the outlook will be more bullish.

 3C is in line with price and is of no predictive value at this point.

While volume is up, considering this to be the first substantial breakout since the downtrend/larger consolidation, volume should (in a healthy move) eclipse the past green volume spikes by the close. The 50-day moving average has no real significance as a resistance level except for the self-fulfilling value placed on it by traders as one of the most popular moving average periods so there could also be some resistance coming from the moving average.

Again, as I said earlier, a move, especially above the 50 day sma, which closes toward the top of the range leaving a small or no upper candle wick on increasing/heavy volume, is often a sign of follow through buying to come over the next few days so keep an eye on the close.

I would still be using a trailing stop. For those who want a tighter stop, the 50-bar moving average on a 5 min chart DID allow enough room for the consolidation. You may consider that as a intraday stop if you are considering taking profits today. Otherwise, if you have a longer term perspective and things seem to be going in EEE's favor, I would look at the 50-bar sma on a 10 min chart for the possibility of a multi-day trend.

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