Tuesday, July 26, 2011

INTC Short Trade Follow Up

 Recently INTC is caught in this tight range.

 The overall condition of INTC is poor as you can see by this 60 min chart.

 On a 15 min chart, every time INTC heads to range resistance around $23.20, there's a 15 min negative divergence, this means this is an area I want to consider shorting INTC or building a position there. 3C has recently deteriorated in to a new leading negative divergence.

There remains a chance that INTC breaks out of the range and heads to the $23.50 area, I would view this as an opportunity to add to the trade. If you prefer being patient and getting the best entry, you can wait and see if INTC can make such a breakout, which will almost certainly be distributed, however you may miss a drop in INTC if the market can't lend enough support to INTC to make such a breakout. The third entry option would be to go short INTC on a break of support in the $23.75 area, that would be the highest probability trade, but you'd give up the better positioning of the two previous entries. With INTC only about $.50 from the potential breakout area, I don't view this as a risky trade. INTC's first stop on the downside should be around $21, I doubt it will hold, but I would expect a consolidation/bounce in the area.
 Ultimately, INTC should be able to hit the $20 and there's a good chance, with market cooperation that INTC moves in to the mid to high teens area.

Either way, the market continues to deteriorate, we'll be lucky to see the SPY/DIA breakout that I have been looking for at this point. I would use the market's position and lower risk trades like INTC to shift my portfolio from a neutral to a net long position, you don't have to swing for the fences, but I would certainly want my portfolio leaning to the bearish/short side at this point. Initial stops should take in to account the possibility of the DIA/SPY breakout, which would mean in the case of INTC, a breakout possibly around $23.50-that calculation would certainly be part of my risk management planning and position sizing as well as the construction/accumulation of positions

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