Friday, August 12, 2011

Financials

 This 30 min chart with a 50-bar average has held the entire downtrend in XLF (Financials) so the cross above the 50 sma is an important occurrence. RSI has also been positive throughout the basing process.

 The 15 min 3C chart has had a positive bias for sometime, even during the decline, but went in to leading positive status during the basing area. Remember, a leading divergence is the most powerful type of divergence, although because of zoom/scaling issues, it should not be viewed as a target area for price. However, the strength of the divergence suggests very sold underlying action in price.


 The shorter 10 Min chart, which is less important to the big picture and more indicative of short term moves, is negatively divergent and leading, suggesting that financials will pullback a bit, this may be an excellent opportunity to pick up positions at reduced cost basis with high probabilities and lower risk as well as a higher Risk:Reward ratio.

 My hourly Crossover system has issued a buy signal. I believe a pullback will likely stop around the blue 22-bar moving average which is also around the same area a the 30-day VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price). This is an area I would watch for potential strength to build for a possible entry in a financial related equity/ETF.

As you can see by my sector rotation chart, financials at the bottom have been performing poorly today, that will most likely show up in weakness in the S&P-500 as Industrials are in rotation, benefiting the Dow.

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