Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Some Quick Observations

This isn't the wrap, I have  lot more work to do before I post that, but quickly...

The Dow-30 ended + 1.27%
The S&P-500         + 1.32%
The NASDAQ 100 + 0.73%

That makes sense when you look at the sectors in rotation today.
Financials were strong, thus the S&P did well, Industrials were strong and the Dow-30 did well, the laggard was the NASDAQ 100, and look at Technology in the red box, it dropped off today.

The dominant price/volume relationship today was price up/volume down, this is usually considered to be the most negative of the 4 relationships. I'll have to look at the market action a bit more though before I attempt to put it n context. To demonstrate the dominance, the Dow-30 has 26 of 30 in this category and the NASDAQ 100 has 67 of 100, so it was dominant.

The thing still nagging at me is the analysis by Wall Street being repeated everywhere that the Jackson Hole event is a no win scenario for the market. If Bernanke announces QE3, then it will either be too small or it will admit how bad off the economy is, if Bernanke says nothing about QE3 then the market falls because it is already priced in. Remember where this analysis originated, it's just being repeated by the financial media and everyone else. I will point out that before the last FOMC meeting, even the most raging bears, like myself, were saying Bernanke would announce some measures in an emergency meeting before the FOMC meeting. Bernanke said nothing of QE3 and basically admitted defeat, I will remind you, the market went on to bounce from that point.

So I'm not picking sides right now, I'm just gathering pieces of the puzzle and seeing what picture emerges.

I'll be back in a bit.

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